The Bryce Harper vs. Yoenis Cespedes MVP Debate

The Most Valuable Player or MVP is not always a player from the best team or even a player on a team that makes the playoffs, the MVP is the player who means the most to his team win or lose.  The Baseball Writers' Association of America tells their members very little in regard to who “qualifies” as an MVP candidate.  They do send out a letter every year though and one of the things they do specifically state is that “the MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier”, that’s because a team makes the playoffs not a single player by himself, a player should not be looked up as better because his team is in first place, just like a player shouldn’t be looked upon worse because his team is in last place.  Just look at Ernie Banks, one of the greatest baseball players ever.  He won NL MVP in both 1958 and 1959 despite the Cubs finishing 10 games under .500 in ’58 and 6 games under .500 in ’59.  Are people looking back to those years and saying he didn’t deserve to win MVP because the Chicago Cubs didn’t make the playoffs, no they are not.  Look at Ryan Howard in 2006, he finished the year hitting .313 with 58 home runs and won NL MVP based off his numbers, he wasn’t wrongfully penalized by voters because the Phillies finished 12 games back of the Mets in the NL East.  Then we can look at the inverse of that, in 1992 Dennis Eckersley won AL MVP as a member of the Oakland Athletics, a team that won the AL West by 6 games.  Despite his team making the playoffs he did not deserve to win MVP in 1992, he wasn’t even the best MVP candidate on his own team, Mark McGwire was.  Why should a player’s MVP candidacy be disputed because of the other 24 players on a team’s roster and because of decisions made by his own coaches and members of the team’s front office?

Ever since Yoenis Cespedes had his first multi-hit game for the New York Mets on August 3^rd against the Marlins, a game in which he had three hits all doubles and four RBIs in a 12-1 win, he has appeared in the National League Most Valuable Player discussion.  Then on August 21^st against the Colorado Rockies when he went five for six with three home runs, a double, seven RBIs and a stolen base this discussion became part of the MVP debate and the talks really escalated.  At this point they were 12-6 with him and this was the beginning of a seven game winning streak, the second five game winning streak they had in their brief time with Cespedes.

Since that time he has hit nine more home runs, bringing him up to fourteen in his first 36 games with the Mets, including six already in the first eight games of September.  Over those same eight games he has 16 of the Mets 84 hits (19.048%) and has accounted for 13 of their 53 RBIs (24.528%).  So while those numbers might look ridiculous even for an eight game period there is another MVP candidate who has played even better not only over those eight games, not only over the whole span of Cespedes being a member of the Mets, but over the course of the whole 2015 season, Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.

Cespedes as a member of the Met: .312/.357/.675

Harper since the Cespedes trade: .352/.491/.600

Cespedes in all of 2015: .298/.333/.554

Harper in all of 2015: .336/.467/.657

This extreme differential in on base percentage can be attributed to the contrast in walks.  Since becoming a member of the Mets, Cespedes has walked nine times and 28 times total in 2015 compared to Harper who has walked 35 times just since Cespedes became a Met and 109 times in 2015, which ranks second in baseball to only Joey Votto.  So while Cespedes and his OPS of 1.032 (36 games) have been a great addition to the Mets, the Nationals would be one of the worst offensive teams in baseball without Bryce Harper and his MLB best OPS of 1.124 and his MLB best wRC+ of 201 (0.104 and 23 ahead of second place Miguel Cabrera) (2015 season).

Bryce Harper has not only been the best player in the National League and the best player in all of baseball this year but the season he is putting up at the age of 22 is one of the best ever.  According to baseball reference WAR calculations if the season ended today Bryce Harper would finish with a WAR of 9.0 which would be good for 8^th best ever by a player 22 or younger, ahead of the season Mike Trout had for the Angels back in 2013 (8.9), ahead of even the season Trout had last year when he won AL MVP (7.9) and ahead of the season Eddie Mathews had for the Milwaukee Braves back in 1953 (8.3) when he hit 47 home runs, the most ever by a player 22 or younger.  But some people don’t like WAR so we can look at his slash line also, the ONLY other player to have slash line like Harper’s or better at the age of 22 or younger is Ted Williams back in 1941 (.406/.553/.735).  And do you know the last time any player had a slash line like Harper’s or better, it was Barry Bonds in 2004 and guess what he won, NL MVP.  So before you say that Cespedes deserves to be NL MVP or even really be in the discussions, think about this, Harper’s current slash line has only been produced 27 times, by 12 players, 7 of whom are in the Hall of Fame but I know the Nationals aren’t going to make the playoffs so Harper can’t be as valuable to his team.

                  

The St. Louis Cardinals: 2015 vs. 2004 vs. 1944

The St. Louis Cardinals are 86-46 and sit at a whopping 40 games over .500 for the first time since 2005, when they finished the season with a record of 100-62.  Not only are they 40 games over .500, but they are with 30 games still to play and according to The Elias Sports Bureau this is only the third time in the history of their franchise that this has occurred with the other two years being 1944 and 2004 (both years they won 105 games).

In 1944 the St. Louis Cardinals (105–49) won the World Series by defeating the St. Louis Browns four games ­to two.  Then in 2004 they once again made it to the World Series but this time were swept four games to none by the Boston Red Sox, but we can excuse that because they were busy ended the "Curse of the Bambino”.  So now here we are in 2015 and the Cardinals once again seemed poised to finish the season with the best record in baseball.

September 2, 1944 NL Standings:

St. Louis Cardinals: 91-32

Pittsburgh Pirates: 74-50

Cincinnati Reds: 68-52

New York Giants: 58-69

Chicago Cubs: 55-66

Boston Braves: 53-75

Brooklyn Dodgers: 50-77

Philadelphia Phillies: 48-76

September 2, 2004 NL Standings (top 8 to match 1944):

St. Louis Cardinals: 89-44

Atlanta Braves: 78-54

Los Angeles Dodgers: 78-55

Chicago Cubs: 73-60

San Francisco Giants: 73-63

San Diego Padres: 71-62

Florida Marlins: 70-62

Houston Astros: 70-63

September 2, 2015 NL Standings (top 8 to match 1944):

St. Louis Cardinals: 86-46

Pittsburgh Pirates: 79-51

Chicago Cubs: 75-56

Los Angeles Dodgers: 74-57

New York Mets: 73-59

San Francisco Giants: 69-63

Washington Nationals: 66-65

Arizona Diamondbacks: 65-68

So looking at these standings the first thing that sticks out is that the 2015 Cardinals are three wins behind where they were in 2004 and five wins behind where they were in 1944, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  So let’s look at Pythagorean expectation, a formula created by Bill James to estimate how many games a team should have won based off runs scored and runs allowed. ­­­­­­­

           

Based off this, at this point in the season in 1944 the Cardinals should have had 93 wins instead of 91, in 2004 the Cardinals should of had 84 wins instead of 89, and the current 2015 Cardinals should have 84 instead of 86.  The first thing about this that sticks out is that the 2015 and 2004 Cardinals are on the same track in terms of Pythagorean Win.  In 2004, the Cardinals should have won 100 games according to Pythagorean win, for this to be the case now in 2015 the Cardinals would have to go 16-16 the rest of the way which is very unlikely considering they still have 14 games to play against the Cincinnati Reds (55-77) and the Milwaukee Brewers (57-75) who both rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of runs scored, team batting average (BA), team on base percentage (OBP), team slugging percentage (SLG) and weighted on base average (wOBA).  But that is just in terms of offense, in terms of pitching they both rank in the bottom half for fielding independent pitching (FIP), walks allowed per nine (BB/9), home runs allowed per nine (HR/9), left on base percentage (LOB%), team WHIP and runs allowed.  That opposes the Cardinals who already walk 8.1% of the time which ranks in the top ten and rank seven in terms of offensive WAR.  They also have the best team ERA by a significant margin, it currently sits at 2.67 with the next closest team being the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 3.21, if broken down as a split between starters and relievers they are rank first in both with a 2.83 by their starters and a 2.34 by their relievers.  Part of this tremendous pitching success has come from their extraordinary left on base percentage (LOB%) of 80.3% which is 4.7% higher than the Kansas City Royals’ 75.6%.  I do have some concerns though, one that their LOB% will regress to league average of about 70-72%.  My other concern is that despite ranking second in team FIP they lead all of baseball in the difference between team ERA and team FIP at negative 0.68 which could lead to regression during this last month and the playoffs, but I have gotten slightly off topic so let’s get back to the comparison.

At this point in the season the 2015 Cardinals’ WAR of 19.7 ranks well behind the 2004 Cardinals’ WAR of 27.6 in terms of WAR and even further behind the 1944 team which put up a team WAR of 29.5.  But that is not the only area where they are well behind.  This year they have a slash line of .256/.323/.395 with a wOBA of .312, a wRC+ of 97 and are striking out 20.2% of the time.  Compare that to 2004 when their slash line was .278/.344/.460 with a wOBA of .344, a wRC+ of 107 and struck out 17.2% of the time and to 1944 when their slash line to end the year was .275/.344/.402 with a wOBA of .352, a wRC+ of 108 and struck out a miniscule 7.6% of the time (less than their walk percentage of 8.8%).

So while they not be hitting at the same clip that they did in the previous two years their pitching has been better than both.  This starts with their strikeout per nine of 8.00 which is significantly higher than the 6.45 they had in 2004 and almost double the 4.02 they had back in 1944.  Then if you compare ERA, in 2015 they have the same exact 2.67 they had back in 1944 and only a slightly higher FIP: 3.35 (2015) vs. 3.16 (1944).

So while the 2015 Cardinals might not be the same offensive juggernaut they were in 2004 and 1944 their pitching more than balances it out and if history tells us anything it’s that the Cardinals should at least make it to the World Series if not win the whole thing.

*WAR taken from Fangraphs calculations

How the worst team in 2015 can compete in 2016

They hold a record of 29 wins and 57 losses and sit seven games behind the next worst teams in baseball the Miami Marlins and the Milwaukee Brewers.  If you guessed, the Philadelphia Phillies, which I am assuming most readers did, you are correct.  In terms of team offensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) they rank 29^th in all of baseball at 2.4 well behind the most potent offensive in baseball of the Toronto Blue Jays, who sit at 17.5.  However, the Phillies do not only struggle offensively but also rank 29^th in terms of pitching WAR and 28^th in terms of defensive rating.

For the last year or so Phillies fans have called for the trade of their ace Cole Hamels and had it not been for the extremely high price on his head set by the organization he would have most likely been a Yankee or Dodger at last year’s trade deadline.  Now in 2015 if the Phillies are not going to receive top prospects and not have to pay any more than what Hamels is still owed for this year, they should once again hold on to their ace.  But, before you stop reading and conclude on post one that I have no idea what I am talking about, let me explain.

The Phillies have Cole Hamels signed at $22,500,000 through the 2018 season and for the 2019 season have a team option of $20,000,000 for a total salary still owed of $87,500,000 for four years (excluding this year and including 2019).  If you break that down to yearly averages it pays him $21,875,000 a year, which sounds like a lot, but it is below the open market value of a left-handed pitcher of Hamels’ caliber which I project to be upwards of $27,000,000 a year.

Money however is not the only reason I believe the Phillies should hold on to Cole Hamels, they are closer to being able to compete than their record shows or people give them credit for.  Their rotation in particular has the ability to be top ten in all of baseball thanks to some offseason trades and their last couple of drafts and while I believe they would be able to compete without Hamels they could compete as soon as next year with Hamels.  With Hamels their rotation projects to be: Hamels, Nola, Eflin, Lively, Biddle with this rotation they would have the ability to bump Severino Gonzalez to the bullpen and solidify Tom Windle as their closer of the future with Ken Giles as his setup man.  With this rotation, they also have the ability to wean themselves off Hamels when Matt Imhof is ready to step into the rotation, which could be as early as the end of next season.  This might sound like putting a lot of hope on guys who have yet to pitch an out at the major league level and while I will admit it is, I believe that it is a risk the Phillies must take if they hope to compete as early as the 2016 season.

            The Phillies also need offensive help and the first step in this would be trading Jonathan Papelbon.  There are three contenders who are seeking bullpen help at the deadline, who also have the farm system depth to make the type of trade the Phillies are looking for.  The first potential trade and the most likely of the three I will lay out is Papelbon to the Chicago Cubs for first baseman Dan Vogelbach.  Vogelbach, the Cubs second round pick in 2011 has the raw power and hitting ability from the left side of the plate that would immediately help the Phillies offensive deficiencies as he is already major league ready but is stuck in the minors because of Anthony Rizzo.  The second potential trade is Papelbon to the Toronto Blue Jays for third baseman Mitch Nay.  Nay helps the Phillies in the same way that Vogelbach would because his size and raw power combined with his quick hands make him a consistent hitter who the Phillies could stick in the middle of their order in the near future.  While he plays third a position, the Phillies do not need help at thanks to Maikel Franco, Nay’s bat is the main attraction.  It is for this reason that they could have him make the switch to either first where he could come up as soon as 2016 or right field where his strong arm would allow him to play in 2017.  The last potential trade is Papelbon to the Houston Astros for shortstop Nolan Fontana and RHP Asher Wojciechowski.  Nolan Fontana projects as a utilityman while Wojciechowski projects as either a back-end of the rotation guy or middle relief, both are already major league ready.

The Rays rank 29^th in terms of WAR from the catcher position and dead last from first base but still sit in first place in the AL East.  It is for this reason that I believe they should trade 2B Ryan Brett to the Phillies for 1B Ryan Howard, C Carlos Ruiz, and OF Cameron Perkins with the Phillies eating the vast majority of both Ruiz’s and Howard’s contracts.  The Rays get the production they need from their two positions of need, catcher and first base, and they also receive a young OF who projects as a middle of the order hitter in the near future.  The Phillies win this trade however for the sole reason that they will not have to pay out all of the two contracts, while receiving Ryan Brett is just a bonus.

2016 projected mid-season Phillies lineup and rotation:

1. Ben Revere – LF

2. Roman Quinn - RF

3. JP Crawford – SS

4. Dan Vogelbach – 1B

5. Maikel Franco – 3rd

6. Ryan Brett – 2nd

7. Aaron Altherr - CF

8. Andrew Knapp – C

9. Cole Hamels, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, Jesse Biddle

*The projected line-up includes the potential trades listed above and excludes any possible free agent signing