Royals - Mets: 2015 World Series Preview

The 2015 World Series begins tomorrow in Kansas City, Missouri pitting in the National League Champion New York Mets against the American League Champion Kansas City Royals.  The Royals get the honor of having home-field advantage thanks to Ned Yost managing the American League to a 6-3 victory in the 2015 All-Star Game.

The Royals will be making their 4th overall and 2nd consecutive appearance in the World Series (lost to the Giants in 2014) after defeating the Houston Astros in 5 games in the ALDS and defeating the Toronto Blue Jays in 6 games in the ALCS.  This appearance makes the Royals the first team since the Texas Rangers in 2010 and 2011 to play in consecutive World Series, the Rangers lost both times, in 2010 to the Giants and in 2011 to the Cardinals.  The last time the Royals won the World Series was in 1985 when they defeated the Cardinals in 7 games.  And while we do not get a rematch of that series which was seen as a real possibility at the start of the postseason considering the Cardinals won 100 games and finished with the best regular season record in baseball and the Royals finished with the 4th best record in baseball and the best in the American League at 95-67, we do get to see this Royals team go up against some of the best young pitchers in the game.

The Mets will be making their 5th overall appearance and their 1st appearance since 2000 in the World Series.  It will also be the first World Series they will have played at Citi Field which opened in 2009.  They reached this point by defeating the Dodgers in 5 game in the NLDS and by sweeping the Cubs in the NLCS, behind stellar starting pitching and the now legendary Daniel Murphy. While the Royals are 1 and 3 (1985) in World Series appearances the Mets are 2 and 2, defeating the Red Sox in 1986 and the Orioles in 1969, but like the Royals they also lost their most recent appearance, 2000 loss to the Yankees.

I am going to stick with my preseason prediction and say the Royals win this series but instead of the 7 games I said they would defeat the Nationals in and then the 7 games I said they would defeat the Cubs in I am going to say that they defeat the Mets in 6 games and bring a title back to Kansas City for the first time since 1985.  I am also going to stick with my original World Series MVP prediction of Eric Hosmer.

What has to happen for either team to win:

• If the Royals want to bring a title back to Kansas City they need the most questionable part of their team, their starting position to step up and do their part.  The bullpen will always be there for them but if their starters can go at least 6 innings in each of their starts and keep it close it would leave the Royals in very good shape.
• If the Mets want to bring a title back to Queens they need their starters to continue to pitch and be absolutely dominate like they have been throughout the playoffs because they are at a immense disadvantage late in games, with the exception of Jeurys Familia.  But Familia can't and won't pitch the 8th and 9th inning of every game so some of other members of their bullpen, such as Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed to step up and pitch like the closers they have been in the past.
• If Daniel Murphy plays like he has been the series swings in the Mets favor
• Murphy hit a career high 14 HRs this season in 130 games, he has seven this postseason in 9 games.  If he had hit HRs at this rate across 499 regular season ABs he would have hit about 91.92 HRs.
• He has homered in 7 postseason games and 6 straight games in the 2015 postseason.
• Only Barry Bonds has more in a single postseason with 8 games in 2002
• No one has homered in more consecutive games
• Only 3 players hit more than 7 HRs in a single postseason (Murphy is at 39 plate appearances so far in the 2015 postseason)
• Nelson Cruz 8 HRs in the 2011 postseason - 70 plate appearances
• Carlos Beltran 8 HRs in the 2004 postseason - 56 plate appearances
• Barry Bonds 8 HRs in the 2002 postseason - 74 plate appearances

Notes:

• The Royals
• They struck out at the lowest rate in baseball by a large margin in 2015 at 15.9%
• Their batters hit .269 which was tied for 2nd best in baseball
• Royals' pitchers generated strikeouts 19.0% of the time in 2015, which ranked 23rd
• The best bullpen in terms of batting average allowed at .211
• Best contact rate in baseball at 82.0%
• 3498 pitches thrown over 95 MPH
• 1464 pitches thrown over 95 MPH by their 4 World Series starters
• 492 pitches thrown over 95 MPH so far this postseason (11 games)
• 286 (58.13%) thrown by their 4 World Series starters
• The Mets
• They struck out at a rate of 21.0% in 2015, which ranked 18th
• Their batters hit .244 which was tied for 2nd to last and only .001 better than the 30th ranked Padres
• Mets' pitchers generated strikeouts 22.1% of the time in 2015, which ranked 8th
• The Mets bullpen ranked 5th with a batting average allowed of .230
• 10th best contact rate in baseball at 80.2%
• 4948 pitches thrown over 95 MPH in the regular season
• 3663 pitches thrown over 95 MPH by their 4 World Series starters
• 470 pitches thrown over 95 MPH so far this postseason (9 games)
• 387 (82.34%) thrown by their 4 World Series starters

World Series Schedule: 

Tuesday, October 27

Game 1: Mets @ Royals

Harvey (13-8) at Volquez (13-9)

Wednesday, October 28

Game 2: Mets @ Royals

deGrom (14-8) at Cueto (11-13)

Friday, October 30

Game 3: Royals @ Mets

Ventura (13-8) at Syndergaard (9-7)

Saturday, October 31

Game 4: Royals @ Mets

Young (11-6) at  Matz (4-0)

Sunday, November 1

Game 5 if necessary: Royals @ Mets

Tuesday, November 3

Game 6  if necessary: Mets @ Royals

Wednesday, November 4

Game 7  if necessary: Mets @ Royals

Postseason Picks

As the playoffs begin tonight with the AL Wildcard game I figured it was as good a time as ever to write up my postseason picks and update my award winners.  My preseason picks did not turn out awful overall as the majority of my playoff teams actually made it and I could possibly get 50% of the major awards correct (unlikely however) but I would like to make some changes and forecast the rest of the way.

My Preseason Picks:

AL Wildcard game: Indians over Houston

ALDS: Royals over Indians in 4

ALDS: Yankees over Angels in 5

ALCS: Royals over Yankees in 6

NL Wildcard game: Cubs over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 5

NLDS: Nationals over Dodgers in 4

NLCS: Nationals over Cubs in 6

World Series: Royals defeat Nationals in 7
            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL MVP: Robinson Cano

AL ROY: Daniel Norris

AL Manager of the year: Ned Yost

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

NL ROY: Kris Bryant

NL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon

My Picks as of October 6^th, 2015:

AL Wildcard game: Yankees over Houston

ALDS: Royals over Yankees in 5

ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers in 4

ALCS: Royals over Blue Jays in 7

            ALCS MVP: Johnny Cueto

NL Wildcard game: Cubs over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 4

NLDS: Dodgers over Mets in 3

NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers in 5

            NLCS MVP: Kris Bryant

World Series: Royals defeat Cubs in 7

            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

AL Cy Young: David Price

            Guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Sale and Chris Archer will garner votes in this ratce and had extraordinary seasons in 2015 but this race eventually comes down to just two, David Price and Dallas Keuchel.  No one in baseball has been better than Dallas Keuchel was at home this season, going 15-0 across 129.1 innings while striking out 139 batters with a batting average against of only .186 and only allowing 4 home runs but in my opinion even those numbers aren’t enough for him to beat out David Price for this award.  Price finished the regular season 18-5 across 220.1 innings pitched with a FIP of 2.78 good for second best in the American League behind only Chris Sale, while leading all AL pitchers in WAR with 6.4.  When the Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline they did so to win the big games and he has.  Since becoming a Blue Jay he has pitched against the Yankees four times and in those starts he has gone 3-0, throwing 26.1 innings, allowing 5 runs and striking out 27.

AL MVP: Mike Trout

            This race is truly just Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson and no one else is even close.  Many people are looking at this race and saying “Donaldson has run away with it” but if that is far from the truth.  They have the same number of home runs (41), and are both sitting around .300 in terms of batting average but that far from illustrates what is going on in this race.  The main arguments I have heard for Donaldson winning MVP is his RBI production and the Blue Jays making the playoffs.  Both arguments are ridiculous.  RBIs tell you nothing about an individual player’s performance but instead the production of the team as a whole.  Trout and Donaldson’s numbers with runners in scoring position are almost identical in general except Donaldson was provided this situation an extra 14 times.  In fact, with runners in scoring position with 2 outs Trout was much better, his slash line in this situation was .314/.556/.371 while Donaldson had a slash line of .254/.382/.444.  Mike Trout finished with a WAR of 9.0 compared to Donaldson’s 8.7 which is close but wRC+ (quantifies a player’s total offensive value) shows the true difference in their seasons.  Trout finished with a wRC+ of 172 second to only Bryce Harper while Donaldson ended the regular season at 154, good for 7^th in all of baseball and 4^th in the American League.  It is because of this that I say advantage Trout.

AL ROY: Francisco Lindor

            I previous blogged about this, see it here.

AL Manager of the year: Paul Molitor

            People had the Twins picked to finish last in the AL Central, it took a full 162 games for them to finally be eliminated.

NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta

            Jake Arrieta was very good in 2014 and very good in the first half of 2015 but his second half is the greatest ever.  He finished 2015 22-6 with an ERA of 1.77 across 229.0 innings with 236 strikeouts.  He threw 107.1 innings in the second half, facing 399 batters and striking out 113 batters.  He only allowed 55 hits, a batting average against of .148 and a WHIP of 0.73.  Oh yeah and he only allowed 9 earned runs (12 total runs).  Since August he has thrown 88.1 innings, he only allowed 4 earned runs, in that same time period 269 pitchers allowed 4+ earned runs in an inning.  So while Greinke and Kershaw were also ridiculously good, I don’t see how Arrieta doesn’t win NL Cy Young.

           

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

            There is no need to explain this pick he was the best player in baseball in 2015 and produced one of the greatest offensive seasons ever, especially for a player who is still only 22.  He should win this award unanimously.

NL ROY: Kris Bryant

            This award like NL MVP should be unanimous considering he has produced one of the best rookie seasons ever.  According to fWAR his WAR of 6.5 ranks 13/14 all time tied with Dutch Zwilling in 1914.  Since 1990 the only players who produced better rookie seasons are Mike Trout (2012), Mike Piazza (1993) and Albert Pujols (2001).

NL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon

            People laughed at me when I had the Cubs picked to finish second in the NL Central and lose to the Nationals in the NLCS but here we are they won 97 games thanks in no small part to Joe Maddon.

2015 AL Wildcard Game Prediction

Tonight we get our first taste of the 2015 MLB playoffs.  Tonight is the AL Wildcard game, which pits the New York Yankees and their ace Masahiro Tanaka against the Houston Astros and their ace and AL Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel.  The game begins at 8 PM EST at Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees went 45-36 at home, while the Astros went 33-48 on the road in 2015.

So far today I have been hearing rumors that the Yankees will start Chris Young over either Gardner or Ellsbury and to be honest it would not surprise me.  Chris Young has excelled against lefties this season, especially at home, while Gardner has been pretty good and Ellsbury has been below average.  The MLB average batting average against lefties this season was .254 and in the American League it was .258, while the Yankees as a team hit .257 against lefties and Ellsbury was worse than that.  Ellsbury hit .253 against lefties this season and .250 at home against lefties so sitting him for Young who has hit .327 against them this season and .329 against them at home, would honestly be a good move.  Young also had a OBP of .397 and a SLG of .575 against lefties this season so to say he has been an extraordinary option for the Yankees would be an understatement.  Gardner has a slash line of .276/.361/.400 this season against lefties so while no where near Young’s numbers much better than Ellsbury.  Bottom line if I had to pick three Yankees outfielders to start tonight I would go with: Beltran, Gardner and Young.

The other rumor I have been hearing is that John Ryan Murphy might start over Brian McCann and this argument is just laughable to me.  This argument is being made because of the supposed difference in defensive ability.  But the numbers actually favor McCann, but I will note neither of them is a very good defensive catcher.  McCann caught 1042.1 innings behind the plate in 2015 compared to Murphy’s 415.1 innings.  And despite catching 627 less innings Murphy actually had a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of -4 compared to McCann’s 0.  But that isn’t all if you looking at rSB (Stolen Base Runs Saved) McCann sits at +2 while Murphy finished the regular season at -2.  So what these numbers tell me is that not only is there not a significant difference in defensive ability but McCann is actually the better option, even if you forget about the 26 home runs he hit this year and the .437 he slugged this year.  Some of you might looking at the difference in batting average but that is easily quieted by looking at BABIP.  Murphy finished with a BABIP of .357 which tells me that his batting average of .277 is very inflated considering he lacks the speed to maintain that, while McCann has been very unlucky with a BABIP of .235 meaning his average of .232 does not truly show how he has hit.

My Yankees lineup for tonight:

1. Gardner – CF
2. Beltran – RF
3. Chris Young – LF
4. Alex Rodriguez – DH
5. Brian McCann – C
6. Greg Bird – 1st
7. Chase Headley – 3^rd
8. Rob Refsnyder – 2^nd
9. Didi Gregorius - SS

Dallas Keuchel has thrown 16 innings against the Yankees this season and they are yet to score a run off him.  But my prediction for tonight is that throwing on only 3 days rest, something he has only done one time in his career (started on 2 days rest in 2013), the Yankees finally get to him.  While Tanaka throws the Yankees 7 innings of shutout baseball before the combination of Betances and Miller close out a 2-0 Yankees victory.

2015 MLB trade deadline

Biggest winners at the deadline:

Blue Jays: Acquired SS Troy Tulowitzki, LHP David Price, OF Ben Revere and RH reliever Mark Lowe; not only did the Blue Jays make the most potent offense in baseball even better, but they also acquired their much needed ace and are now the favorites in the AL East despite being six games back of the Yankees (losers at the deadline)

Royals: Acquired RHP Johnny Cueto and INF/OF Ben Zobrist; like the Blue Jays the Royals also acquired their much needed ace and with Alex Gordon out for at least a couple more weeks added super-utility man Zobrist, who will slot into the two spot in the batting order and play left field until Gordon gets back at which point he will most likely take over at second

Astros: The Astros became the favorite in the AL West this past week by acquiring LHP Scott Kazmir, OF Carlos Gomez and RHP Mike Fiers; the Astros vastly improved their rotation by adding Scott Kazmir and then added depth in Mike Fiers to a rotation that already consists of all-star Dallas Keuchel, while also adding a proven offensive star in Carlos Gomez that will improve the top of their lineup

Biggest losers at the deadline:

Yankees: Acquired 2B/OF Dustin Ackley, but otherwise stand pat while placing Michael Pineda on the DL

Padres: Acquired LH reliever Marc Rzepcynski but shed no payroll or gain a player to help them fight back into contention despite being eight games back in the NL West and twelve and a half back of the second NL Wild Card spot

Angels: The Angels sit two back, in the AL West but instead of adding players to help them win and overtake the Astros for first place they added three platoon LFs instead of the big impact one they desperately needed and watched the Astros add the players that they needed to turn a two game lead into the same ten game lead the Angels finished ahead of the second place Athletics in 2014



Full List of Trades:

The Pirates acquire 3B Aramis Ramirez and cash from the Brewers for RHP Yhonathan Barrios

The Astros acquire LHP Scott Kazmir from the Athletics for RHP Daniel Mengden and C Jacob Nottingham

The Angels acquire INF Conor Gillaspie from the White Sox for cash

The Mets acquire INF Juan Uribe and OF Kelly Johnson from the Braves for RHPs John Gant and Rob Whalen

The Cardinals acquire RHP Steve Cishek from the Marlins for RHP Kyle Barraclough

The Royals acquire RHP Johnny Cueto from the Reds for LHPs Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed

The Angels acquire OF Shane Victorino from the Red Sox for INF Josh Rutledge and cash

The Mets acquire RHP Tyler Clippard from the Athletics for RHP Casey Meisner

The Blue Jays acquire SS Troy Tulowitzki and RHP LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies for SS Jose Reyes, RHPs Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro and Jesus Tinoco

The Royals acquire INF/OF Ben Zobrist from the Athletics for RHP Aaron Brooks and LHP Sean Manaea

The Nationals acquire RHP Jonathan Papelbon and cash considerations from the Phillies for RHP Nick Pivetta

The Angels acquire OF David DeJesus from the Rays for RHP Eduar Lopez

The Angels acquire OF David Murphy from the Indians for SS Eric Stamets

The Pirates acquire RHP Joe Blanton from the Royals for cash considerations

The Rangers acquire LHP Cole Hamels, LHP Jake Diekman and cash from the Phillies for LHP Matt Harrison, C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nick Williams and RHPs Jake Thompson, Alec Asher and Jerad Eickhoff

The Cardinals acquire OF Brandon Moss from the Indians for LHP Rob Kaminsky

The Blue Jays acquire LHP David Price, from the Tigers for LHPs Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt

The Dodgers acquire LHP Alex Wood, RHP Jim Johnson, LHP Luis Avilan, INF Jose Peraza, RHP Bronson Arroyo and cash from the Braves for INF Hector Olivera, LHP Paco Rodriguez and RHP Zach Bird.  The Braves also receive a compensation draft pick from the Marlins

The Dodgers acquire RHP Mat Latos and 1B/OF Michael Morse from the Marlins for RHPs Kevin Guzman, Jeff Brigham and Victor Araujo

The Yankees acquire 2B/OF Dustin Ackley from the Mariners for OF Ramon Flores and RHP Jose Ramirez

The Astros acquire OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Mike Fiers and the 76th international signing slot (2015-16) from the Brewers for OFs Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana, LHP Josh Hader and RHP Adrian Houser

The Pirates acquire RHP Joakim Soria from the Tigers for INF JaCoby Jones

The Giants acquire RHP Mike Leake from the Reds for INF Adam Duvall and RHP Keury Mella

The Cardinals acquire RHP Jonathan Broxton and cash from the Brewers for OF Malik Collymore

The Orioles acquire OF Gerardo Parra from the Brewers for RHP Zach Davies

The Athletics acquire LHP Felix Doubront from the Blue Jays for cash considerations

The Blue Jays acquire RHP Mark Lowe from the Mariners for LHP Nick Wells, LHP Jacob Brentz and LHP Rob Rasmussen

The Cubs acquire RHP Dan Haren from the Marlins for RHP Ivan Pineyro and SS Elliot Soto

The Twins acquire RHP Kevin Jepsen from the Rays for RHPs Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia

The Blue Jays acquire OF Ben Revere and cash from the Phillies for RHPs Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado

The Mets acquire OF Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers for RHPs Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa

The Cubs acquire RHP Tommy Hunter from the Orioles for OF Junior Lake

The Pirates acquire LHP J.A. Happ from the Mariners for RHP Adrian Sampson

The Red Sox acquire RHP Ryan Cook from the Athletics for a player to be named later

The Rangers acquire RHP Sam Dyson from the Marlins for C Tomas Telis and LHP Cody Ege

The Pirates acquire 1B/OF Michael Morse from the Dodgers for OF Jose Tabata

The Padres acquire LHP Marc Rzepcynski from the Indians for OF Abraham Almonte