Jason Heyward vs. Adam Eaton

Outfielder Jason Heyward just signed an eight-year, $184 million contract with the Chicago Cubs and not even five minutes later I saw the first tweet comparing him to White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton.  And while Eaton is a very good player and I am not trying to offend him, they do not have the same kind of value, Heyward is significantly better.

I have seen people mostly use HRs, runs scored, RBIs and batting average to compare the two players.  First off only half of those statistics have any value when comparing player value so we can immediately knock off runs scored and RBIs because they evaluate a team not a player.

Jason Heyward

HRs: 13

BA: .293
OBP: .359
SLG: .439

wOBA: .346

wRC+: 121

Adam Eaton

HRs: 14

BA: .287
OBP: .361
SLG: .431

wOBA: .346

wRC+: 118

As you can see the people using these statistics are right when they were say the two were very similar at the plate in 2015 but these statistics do not tell the whole story.  Heyward walked 9.2% of the time in 2015, while Eaton walked 8.4% of the time, once again very similar.  Heyward stole 23 bags in 2015, Eaton stole 18, again close, but the comparison basically ends there.

Heyward struck out 14.8% of the time in 2015, while Eaton struck out 19.0%, not very close.  While Heyward has decreased his strikeout rate every year since 2012, when he posted a career high 23.3%, Eaton has increased his strikeout rate from 14.6% to the current 19.0% over the same time period.  This difference in strikeout rate begins with the percentage of pitches they swing at outside and inside of the strike zone which is where Heyward was better.

Jason Heyward

O-Swing %: 25.7%

Z-Swing %: 63.1%

Swing %: 41.7%

Contact %: 84.2%

Adam Eaton

O-Swing %: 29.2%

Z-Swing %: 60.4%

Swing %: 44.0%

Contact %:  83.8%

As you can see Heyward had better plate discipline in 2015 which resulted in a better overall contact rate and while a difference of only 0.4% may not seem like much it helped Heyward finish the season with a strikeout rate 4.2% better than Eaton and a swinging strike rate 0.5% better, despite Eaton seeing 4.6% more of his pitches inside the zone.

Then there is defense which is where Heyward truly shines.   Heyward is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league.  He finishing the season 38 defensive runs saved better than Eaton (Heyward: +24, Eaton: -14), even if he finished 18 defensive runs saved behind Kevin Kiermaier.  Heyward is the much better defensive player in all aspects and it is not even close.

Jason Heyward

DRS: +24 (3)

Arm: 5.2 (9)

Range: 16.2 (2)

UZR: 22.6 (2)

Adam Eaton

DRS: -14 (57)

Arm: -2.8 (48)

Range: -6.8 (52)

UZR: -10.2 (56)

Jason Heyward ranks in the top 10 for every single one of these categories among qualifying outfielders (rankings in parenthesis above) while among the 60 qualifying outfielders, Eaton ranks near the bottom.  This significant defensive difference resulted in Heyward posting an fWAR of 6.0 in the 2015 season which ranked 11^th among all position players and 6^th among all qualifying outfielders, while Eaton finished with an fWAR of 3.6 which ranked 47^th among all position players and 20^th among qualifying outfielders.

In the environment of baseball today defensive is more important than ever and teams are valuing it that way.  And while Jason Heyward and Adam Eaton had similar offensive numbers in 2015, Heyward is a true five-tool player and one of the absolute best defensive players in the league and is being paid as such.

Is Jeff Samardzija about to be vastly overpaid?

A source confirmed to Bruce Levine that Jeff Samardzija has a five-year, $90 million contract on the table from an undisclosed team.  While Samardzija's representatives are informing teams that he has at least one $100 million offer on the table also from an undisclosed team.

With the exception of 2014 Jeff Samardzija has been a less than adequate option for teams as a starting pitcher but despite this his value is expected to be around $18 million a year on the free agent market which makes sense if you calculate it using $7 million per 1 WAR but $5 million per 1 WAR makes more sense to me.  Using this it would put his value at around $13.5 million per year considering in 3 of the last 4 seasons he has put up a WAR of 2.7 and I realize he would not likely accept that which is why I previously predicted him receiving 5-years $77.5 million.

For the sake of argument let's only look at seasons where Samardzija threw more that 50 innings so from 2011 on.  Based off this he put up a career worst FIP of 4.23 and a career high xFIP of 4.31 in 2015 while putting up a career low K% of 17.9%.  But why might this be.

In 2015 Samardzija's average fastball velocity was only slightly down at 94.3 MPH compared to 94.6 in both 2013 and 2014 so at first glance this might not appear to be a real problem but that's not completely true (he threw 108 pitches 96+ in 2015 down from 195 in 2014 and 222 in 2013).  This average fastball velocity is in the same area of Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha and his fastball results whiffs and called strikes at about the same rates:

Shelby Miller: Whiffs: 10.6%, Called Strikes: 16.0%

Michael Wacha: Whiffs: 9.4%, Called Strikes: 17.4%

Jeff Samardzija: Whiffs: 9.1%, Called Strikes: 16.2%

The difference then becomes what happens if the pitch doesn't result in a strike, which is where Samardzija falls behind.  Miller allowed hits on his fastball 5.9% of the time, Wacha allowed hits on his fastball 5.5% of the time and then there was Samardzija who allowed hits on his fastball 7.4% of the time.  If you look at their four-seam fastballs there is an interesting difference.  While their average velocities are all about the same, the average perceived speed show a significant difference.

                    Wacha: Average Speed: 94.55, Average Perceived Speed: 95.88, Difference: +1.33

                     Miller: Average Speed: 94.54, Average Perceived Speed: 95.41, Difference: +0.87

                 Samardzija: Average Speed: 94.57, Average Perceived Speed: 94.39, Difference: -0.18

This tells that while they have similar actual velocities, Samardzija's fastball appears slower to the batter which could be causing it to be hit more often.  While this could be one of the factors causing Samardzija to have below average effectiveness on his fastball, his fastball isn't the only problem.  His slider which has been an effective pitch for him since 2011 fell off in 2015, which is shown in the following chart that shows pitch runs above average.  His slider which has consistently been his best pitch throughout his career became his least effective pitch in 2015 (-6.6 runs above average) while he threw it a career high 24.6% of the time.  And his fastball returned to the ineffectiveness it was for the majority of his career (-4.5 runs above average) while he threw it a career low 39.6% of the time, 15.6% less often than 2014.  In fact his only pitch that was effective in 2015 was his cutter and it was barely better than average at 0.3.

Overall Samardzija produced a higher swinging rate on both pitches outside the zone (34.8%) and inside the zone (69.3%) in 2015 which allowed him to produce an overall swinging rate of 51.4%, 2.2% above his previous career high of 49.2%.  And while on first thought this might seem like a positive it wasn't in 2015.  This is because he allowed career high contact rates on both pitches outside the zone (67.5%) and inside the zone (87.8%), which resulted in overall contact rate of 80.7%.  These numbers aren't just increases from previous years they are significant jumps of 4.4%, 2.2% and 3.4% from the rates he produced in 2014.  And while those rates increased, his first pitch strike rate dropped from 65.5% in 2014 to 62.4% in 2015 and while this 62.4% is still the second highest rate of his career it did not result in anywhere near the level of production he put up in 2014 when he threw a first pitch strike 3.1% more often.  Samardzija also produced swinging strikes at a career low 9.8% a drop of 1.3% from 2014 and 2.3% less than his career high of 12.1% in 2012.

So while it is not truly known whether Jeff Samardzija will put up numbers similar to 2014 or similar to the majority of his career in the 2016 season, teams seem willing to take the risk on him.  In my opinion having someone eat innings like he does is extremely important but you could find someone to eat innings and put up similar production for much less money, just look at Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Ian Kennedy and even Bartolo Colon and Alfredo Simon for that matter.

Update: Jeff Samardzija has signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the San Francisco Giants            

Royals - Mets: 2015 World Series Preview

The 2015 World Series begins tomorrow in Kansas City, Missouri pitting in the National League Champion New York Mets against the American League Champion Kansas City Royals.  The Royals get the honor of having home-field advantage thanks to Ned Yost managing the American League to a 6-3 victory in the 2015 All-Star Game.

The Royals will be making their 4th overall and 2nd consecutive appearance in the World Series (lost to the Giants in 2014) after defeating the Houston Astros in 5 games in the ALDS and defeating the Toronto Blue Jays in 6 games in the ALCS.  This appearance makes the Royals the first team since the Texas Rangers in 2010 and 2011 to play in consecutive World Series, the Rangers lost both times, in 2010 to the Giants and in 2011 to the Cardinals.  The last time the Royals won the World Series was in 1985 when they defeated the Cardinals in 7 games.  And while we do not get a rematch of that series which was seen as a real possibility at the start of the postseason considering the Cardinals won 100 games and finished with the best regular season record in baseball and the Royals finished with the 4th best record in baseball and the best in the American League at 95-67, we do get to see this Royals team go up against some of the best young pitchers in the game.

The Mets will be making their 5th overall appearance and their 1st appearance since 2000 in the World Series.  It will also be the first World Series they will have played at Citi Field which opened in 2009.  They reached this point by defeating the Dodgers in 5 game in the NLDS and by sweeping the Cubs in the NLCS, behind stellar starting pitching and the now legendary Daniel Murphy. While the Royals are 1 and 3 (1985) in World Series appearances the Mets are 2 and 2, defeating the Red Sox in 1986 and the Orioles in 1969, but like the Royals they also lost their most recent appearance, 2000 loss to the Yankees.

I am going to stick with my preseason prediction and say the Royals win this series but instead of the 7 games I said they would defeat the Nationals in and then the 7 games I said they would defeat the Cubs in I am going to say that they defeat the Mets in 6 games and bring a title back to Kansas City for the first time since 1985.  I am also going to stick with my original World Series MVP prediction of Eric Hosmer.

What has to happen for either team to win:

• If the Royals want to bring a title back to Kansas City they need the most questionable part of their team, their starting position to step up and do their part.  The bullpen will always be there for them but if their starters can go at least 6 innings in each of their starts and keep it close it would leave the Royals in very good shape.
• If the Mets want to bring a title back to Queens they need their starters to continue to pitch and be absolutely dominate like they have been throughout the playoffs because they are at a immense disadvantage late in games, with the exception of Jeurys Familia.  But Familia can't and won't pitch the 8th and 9th inning of every game so some of other members of their bullpen, such as Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed to step up and pitch like the closers they have been in the past.
• If Daniel Murphy plays like he has been the series swings in the Mets favor
• Murphy hit a career high 14 HRs this season in 130 games, he has seven this postseason in 9 games.  If he had hit HRs at this rate across 499 regular season ABs he would have hit about 91.92 HRs.
• He has homered in 7 postseason games and 6 straight games in the 2015 postseason.
• Only Barry Bonds has more in a single postseason with 8 games in 2002
• No one has homered in more consecutive games
• Only 3 players hit more than 7 HRs in a single postseason (Murphy is at 39 plate appearances so far in the 2015 postseason)
• Nelson Cruz 8 HRs in the 2011 postseason - 70 plate appearances
• Carlos Beltran 8 HRs in the 2004 postseason - 56 plate appearances
• Barry Bonds 8 HRs in the 2002 postseason - 74 plate appearances

Notes:

• The Royals
• They struck out at the lowest rate in baseball by a large margin in 2015 at 15.9%
• Their batters hit .269 which was tied for 2nd best in baseball
• Royals' pitchers generated strikeouts 19.0% of the time in 2015, which ranked 23rd
• The best bullpen in terms of batting average allowed at .211
• Best contact rate in baseball at 82.0%
• 3498 pitches thrown over 95 MPH
• 1464 pitches thrown over 95 MPH by their 4 World Series starters
• 492 pitches thrown over 95 MPH so far this postseason (11 games)
• 286 (58.13%) thrown by their 4 World Series starters
• The Mets
• They struck out at a rate of 21.0% in 2015, which ranked 18th
• Their batters hit .244 which was tied for 2nd to last and only .001 better than the 30th ranked Padres
• Mets' pitchers generated strikeouts 22.1% of the time in 2015, which ranked 8th
• The Mets bullpen ranked 5th with a batting average allowed of .230
• 10th best contact rate in baseball at 80.2%
• 4948 pitches thrown over 95 MPH in the regular season
• 3663 pitches thrown over 95 MPH by their 4 World Series starters
• 470 pitches thrown over 95 MPH so far this postseason (9 games)
• 387 (82.34%) thrown by their 4 World Series starters

World Series Schedule: 

Tuesday, October 27

Game 1: Mets @ Royals

Harvey (13-8) at Volquez (13-9)

Wednesday, October 28

Game 2: Mets @ Royals

deGrom (14-8) at Cueto (11-13)

Friday, October 30

Game 3: Royals @ Mets

Ventura (13-8) at Syndergaard (9-7)

Saturday, October 31

Game 4: Royals @ Mets

Young (11-6) at  Matz (4-0)

Sunday, November 1

Game 5 if necessary: Royals @ Mets

Tuesday, November 3

Game 6  if necessary: Mets @ Royals

Wednesday, November 4

Game 7  if necessary: Mets @ Royals

2015 Division Series Recap and Championship Series Preview

My pre-postseason picks:

ALDS: Royals over Yankees in 5

ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers in 4

ALCS: Royals over Blue Jays in 7

            ALCS MVP: Johnny Cueto

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 4

NLDS: Dodgers over Mets in 3

NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers in 5

            NLCS MVP: Kris Bryant

World Series: Royals defeat Cubs in 7

            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

As the the Championship Series begins tonight with a match-up between the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays I figured it would be a good time to recap what has happened so far and give my predictions for the rest of the way.

Postseason to this point (10/16/15)

ALDS: Royals over Astros 3-2

ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers 3-2
ALCS: Royals - Blue Jays

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals 3-1

NLDS: Mets over Dodgers 3-2
NLCS: Cubs - Mets

Division Series Recaps:

The first division series to conclude was the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals in four games and it was the only series where I correctly picked not only the winner but also the number of games.  The Cardinals took game one behind an absolute gem by John Lackey but were thoroughly overpowered in the following three games.  Highlighted by a game three where Arrieta finally showed some vulnerability allowing 4 runs across 5.2 innings pitched but also struck out 9.  But these 4 runs were nothing as the Cubs went on to hit a major league postseason record six home runs, one by each of the first six batters in the Cubs lineup.  The following day the Cubs finished it off behind a stellar all hands on deck bullpen effort after starter Jason Hammel was pulled in the fourth inning after walking Jhonny Peralta to leadoff the inning.  This was the first time in the history of Wrigley Field that the Cubs had clinched a postseason series at home and it made them the first team to advance.

The next division series to conclude even if it was only by hours was the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers in five games.  Despite game two going 14 innings before the Rangers finally won it that game was completely overshadowed by the events of game 5.  Game five was pretty uneventful heading into the bottom of the 6th inning with the Rangers holding a 2-1 lead.  Then Edwin Encarnación hit a massive home run to tie the game and it woke the crowd in Toronto up big time.  Then we get to the top of the 7th and it looks like the Blue Jays might get out of the inning without allowing any more runs after Rougned Odor reached third with 2 out but then with Shin-Soo Choo at the plate the strangest play of the postseason happened.  Russell Martin went to throw the ball back to Aaron Sanchez but the ball hit the hand and bat of Choo and bounced into play, Odor being heads up came home to score but not before umpire Dale Scott had called time.  This resulted in a long umpire conference that concluded with the run counting and the Rangers taking a 3-2 lead, Choo then immediately struck out to end the half inning.  The top of the 7th was also something that is rare in baseball the Rangers started out the half inning by making three errors, two by shortstop Elvis Andrus, allowing Martin, Pillar and Goins to all reach base with no outs.  After Revere grounded into a fielder's choice MVP candidate Josh Donaldson hit a little blooper that resulted Odor misplayed that scored Pillar to tie the game at 3 but it also resulted in Revere being out at second since he was not running because it appeared to be an easy play for Odor.  With two outs Jose Bautista stepped to the dish and hit the biggest home run in Toronto since Joe Carter in game six of the 1993 World Series.  With a 1-1 count Rangers right-hander Sam Dyson threw Bautista a 97 MPH two-seam fastball that he absolutely crushed to put the Blue Jays ahead for good and send them to the ALCS.

The second game 5 of the division series this one between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros began almost immediately after the Blue Jays and Rangers concluded and this game was nothing compared to the one it was following.  After allowing a two-run home run to Luis Valbuena in the second inning Johnny Cueto did not allow another baserunner striking out eight before handing it off to closer Wade Davis who closed out a decisive 7-2 Royals victory and advanced them to their second consecutive ALCS.

In game two of the Dodgers-Mets series Chase Utley 'slid' into second to break up the double play and in the process broke shortstop Rubén Tejada's leg.  This has sparked a debate that is still going on regarding player safety and what is considered a dirty slide and this one play has overshadowed the rest of the series.  In my opinion while it was a poor attempt at a slide, if you can even call it a slide, it is not a dirty play and within the rules.  Utley's intent was to break-up the double play not to injure Tejada and Major League Baseball has shown in the past that they will allow these types of plays.  A month ago Utley had a worse slide against the Padres and no one even talked about it, Chris Coglan broke Jung-ho Kang's leg and the next day the only people still talking about it were Pirates' fans.  But that brings us to the last game of the division series.  Also a game five this one between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets.  Two nights after Clayton Kershaw threw the Dodgers a gem to keep them in the series and give them a chance to win it at home Zack Greinke was good allowing 3 runs across 6.2 innings with 9 strikeouts but was not quite good enough to defeat Jacob deGrom and the Mets.  After struggling in the first deGrom grinded through the next five innings without allowing another run despite having some control problems and not having his best stuff before handing the ball off to Noah Syndergaard who threw an inning after warming up four times.  Syndergaard then handed it off to Jeurys Familia who threw the last two innings without allowing a baserunner to conclude a 3-2 Mets win.  This sent the Dodgers home and sent the Mets back home to host the Cubs on Saturday night.

Championship Series Predictions:

Kansas City Royals - Toronto Blue Jays:

I am standing by my previous prediction of Royals over Blue Jays in seven games with Johnny Cueto throwing them two huge games, game three and game seven.  With those huge games he takes home ALCS MVP and advances the Royals to the World Series for the second straight year.  Despite this prediction I believe Edinson Volquez gets hit around while Marco Estrada is good, not great, but good enough to out-pitch Volquez in a Blue Jays game one win over the Royals.

Chicago Cubs - New York Mets:

I have to slightly change up my prediction for this series considering I initially had the Dodgers but I am going to stand by the Cubs but bump it up from five games to six while sticking with Kris Bryant as NLCS MVP.  Bryant finally gets going on the road with at least one home run at Citi field before returning to Wrigley and playing extremely well like he has all season.  I think the Cubs lose game one in New York before taking game two.  They then return to Chicago taking games three and five, dropping game 4 due to a less than adequate outing from Jason Hammel.  When the series returns to New York the Cubs win game six clinching a trip to the World Series behind another stellar performance from their ace Jake Arrieta and home runs from Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo.

2015 NL Wildcard Game Prediction

Tonight is the NL Wildcard game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.  This is absolute pitching match-up pitting aces Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole against each other.  Gerrit Cole has had an absolutely outstanding season and I'm not trying to take anything away from him but I think Jake Arrieta gives the Cubs the advantage.  He finished the season 22-6 with an ERA of 1.77, an FIP of 2.35 and an fWAR of 7.3, second to only Clayton Kershaw.  But it is his second half that really shines considering it was one of the most dominate ever.  In 15 second half starts Jake Arrieta went 12-1 posting an ERA of 0.75, which is the lowest in baseball history.  And did I mention he struck out 28.3% of the batters he faced.  Since the beginning of August, spanning 12 starts, he has allowed all of 4 earned runs with a 0.41 ERA and the Cubs are 12-0 in those games.  In that same span 269 pitchers have allowed 4+ earned runs in an inning.  At the end of the day I think the Cubs win this game by a score of 3-1 because of Jake Arrieta.

Prediction:

Jake Arrieta: 8 IP, 11 Ks, 0 Walk, 3 Hits, 1 ER

Hector Rondon: 1 IP, 1 Ks, 0 Hits, 0 ERs

Gerrit Cole: 6 IP, 5 Ks, 1 Walks, 7 Hits, 3 ERs

Joakim Soria: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 1 Walk, 0 Hits, 0 ERs

Tony Watson: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 Walks, 0 Hits, 0 ERs

Mark Melancon: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 Walks, 1 Hit, 0 ERs

Cubs runs score on a Kris Bryant two-run home run with Dexter Fowler on base and an Anthony Rizzo solo home run.  Pirates score Polanco on a McCutchen double.

Postseason Picks

As the playoffs begin tonight with the AL Wildcard game I figured it was as good a time as ever to write up my postseason picks and update my award winners.  My preseason picks did not turn out awful overall as the majority of my playoff teams actually made it and I could possibly get 50% of the major awards correct (unlikely however) but I would like to make some changes and forecast the rest of the way.

My Preseason Picks:

AL Wildcard game: Indians over Houston

ALDS: Royals over Indians in 4

ALDS: Yankees over Angels in 5

ALCS: Royals over Yankees in 6

NL Wildcard game: Cubs over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 5

NLDS: Nationals over Dodgers in 4

NLCS: Nationals over Cubs in 6

World Series: Royals defeat Nationals in 7
            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL MVP: Robinson Cano

AL ROY: Daniel Norris

AL Manager of the year: Ned Yost

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

NL ROY: Kris Bryant

NL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon

My Picks as of October 6^th, 2015:

AL Wildcard game: Yankees over Houston

ALDS: Royals over Yankees in 5

ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers in 4

ALCS: Royals over Blue Jays in 7

            ALCS MVP: Johnny Cueto

NL Wildcard game: Cubs over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 4

NLDS: Dodgers over Mets in 3

NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers in 5

            NLCS MVP: Kris Bryant

World Series: Royals defeat Cubs in 7

            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

AL Cy Young: David Price

            Guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Sale and Chris Archer will garner votes in this ratce and had extraordinary seasons in 2015 but this race eventually comes down to just two, David Price and Dallas Keuchel.  No one in baseball has been better than Dallas Keuchel was at home this season, going 15-0 across 129.1 innings while striking out 139 batters with a batting average against of only .186 and only allowing 4 home runs but in my opinion even those numbers aren’t enough for him to beat out David Price for this award.  Price finished the regular season 18-5 across 220.1 innings pitched with a FIP of 2.78 good for second best in the American League behind only Chris Sale, while leading all AL pitchers in WAR with 6.4.  When the Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline they did so to win the big games and he has.  Since becoming a Blue Jay he has pitched against the Yankees four times and in those starts he has gone 3-0, throwing 26.1 innings, allowing 5 runs and striking out 27.

AL MVP: Mike Trout

            This race is truly just Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson and no one else is even close.  Many people are looking at this race and saying “Donaldson has run away with it” but if that is far from the truth.  They have the same number of home runs (41), and are both sitting around .300 in terms of batting average but that far from illustrates what is going on in this race.  The main arguments I have heard for Donaldson winning MVP is his RBI production and the Blue Jays making the playoffs.  Both arguments are ridiculous.  RBIs tell you nothing about an individual player’s performance but instead the production of the team as a whole.  Trout and Donaldson’s numbers with runners in scoring position are almost identical in general except Donaldson was provided this situation an extra 14 times.  In fact, with runners in scoring position with 2 outs Trout was much better, his slash line in this situation was .314/.556/.371 while Donaldson had a slash line of .254/.382/.444.  Mike Trout finished with a WAR of 9.0 compared to Donaldson’s 8.7 which is close but wRC+ (quantifies a player’s total offensive value) shows the true difference in their seasons.  Trout finished with a wRC+ of 172 second to only Bryce Harper while Donaldson ended the regular season at 154, good for 7^th in all of baseball and 4^th in the American League.  It is because of this that I say advantage Trout.

AL ROY: Francisco Lindor

            I previous blogged about this, see it here.

AL Manager of the year: Paul Molitor

            People had the Twins picked to finish last in the AL Central, it took a full 162 games for them to finally be eliminated.

NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta

            Jake Arrieta was very good in 2014 and very good in the first half of 2015 but his second half is the greatest ever.  He finished 2015 22-6 with an ERA of 1.77 across 229.0 innings with 236 strikeouts.  He threw 107.1 innings in the second half, facing 399 batters and striking out 113 batters.  He only allowed 55 hits, a batting average against of .148 and a WHIP of 0.73.  Oh yeah and he only allowed 9 earned runs (12 total runs).  Since August he has thrown 88.1 innings, he only allowed 4 earned runs, in that same time period 269 pitchers allowed 4+ earned runs in an inning.  So while Greinke and Kershaw were also ridiculously good, I don’t see how Arrieta doesn’t win NL Cy Young.

           

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

            There is no need to explain this pick he was the best player in baseball in 2015 and produced one of the greatest offensive seasons ever, especially for a player who is still only 22.  He should win this award unanimously.

NL ROY: Kris Bryant

            This award like NL MVP should be unanimous considering he has produced one of the best rookie seasons ever.  According to fWAR his WAR of 6.5 ranks 13/14 all time tied with Dutch Zwilling in 1914.  Since 1990 the only players who produced better rookie seasons are Mike Trout (2012), Mike Piazza (1993) and Albert Pujols (2001).

NL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon

            People laughed at me when I had the Cubs picked to finish second in the NL Central and lose to the Nationals in the NLCS but here we are they won 97 games thanks in no small part to Joe Maddon.

The Bryce Harper vs. Yoenis Cespedes MVP Debate

The Most Valuable Player or MVP is not always a player from the best team or even a player on a team that makes the playoffs, the MVP is the player who means the most to his team win or lose.  The Baseball Writers' Association of America tells their members very little in regard to who “qualifies” as an MVP candidate.  They do send out a letter every year though and one of the things they do specifically state is that “the MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier”, that’s because a team makes the playoffs not a single player by himself, a player should not be looked up as better because his team is in first place, just like a player shouldn’t be looked upon worse because his team is in last place.  Just look at Ernie Banks, one of the greatest baseball players ever.  He won NL MVP in both 1958 and 1959 despite the Cubs finishing 10 games under .500 in ’58 and 6 games under .500 in ’59.  Are people looking back to those years and saying he didn’t deserve to win MVP because the Chicago Cubs didn’t make the playoffs, no they are not.  Look at Ryan Howard in 2006, he finished the year hitting .313 with 58 home runs and won NL MVP based off his numbers, he wasn’t wrongfully penalized by voters because the Phillies finished 12 games back of the Mets in the NL East.  Then we can look at the inverse of that, in 1992 Dennis Eckersley won AL MVP as a member of the Oakland Athletics, a team that won the AL West by 6 games.  Despite his team making the playoffs he did not deserve to win MVP in 1992, he wasn’t even the best MVP candidate on his own team, Mark McGwire was.  Why should a player’s MVP candidacy be disputed because of the other 24 players on a team’s roster and because of decisions made by his own coaches and members of the team’s front office?

Ever since Yoenis Cespedes had his first multi-hit game for the New York Mets on August 3^rd against the Marlins, a game in which he had three hits all doubles and four RBIs in a 12-1 win, he has appeared in the National League Most Valuable Player discussion.  Then on August 21^st against the Colorado Rockies when he went five for six with three home runs, a double, seven RBIs and a stolen base this discussion became part of the MVP debate and the talks really escalated.  At this point they were 12-6 with him and this was the beginning of a seven game winning streak, the second five game winning streak they had in their brief time with Cespedes.

Since that time he has hit nine more home runs, bringing him up to fourteen in his first 36 games with the Mets, including six already in the first eight games of September.  Over those same eight games he has 16 of the Mets 84 hits (19.048%) and has accounted for 13 of their 53 RBIs (24.528%).  So while those numbers might look ridiculous even for an eight game period there is another MVP candidate who has played even better not only over those eight games, not only over the whole span of Cespedes being a member of the Mets, but over the course of the whole 2015 season, Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.

Cespedes as a member of the Met: .312/.357/.675

Harper since the Cespedes trade: .352/.491/.600

Cespedes in all of 2015: .298/.333/.554

Harper in all of 2015: .336/.467/.657

This extreme differential in on base percentage can be attributed to the contrast in walks.  Since becoming a member of the Mets, Cespedes has walked nine times and 28 times total in 2015 compared to Harper who has walked 35 times just since Cespedes became a Met and 109 times in 2015, which ranks second in baseball to only Joey Votto.  So while Cespedes and his OPS of 1.032 (36 games) have been a great addition to the Mets, the Nationals would be one of the worst offensive teams in baseball without Bryce Harper and his MLB best OPS of 1.124 and his MLB best wRC+ of 201 (0.104 and 23 ahead of second place Miguel Cabrera) (2015 season).

Bryce Harper has not only been the best player in the National League and the best player in all of baseball this year but the season he is putting up at the age of 22 is one of the best ever.  According to baseball reference WAR calculations if the season ended today Bryce Harper would finish with a WAR of 9.0 which would be good for 8^th best ever by a player 22 or younger, ahead of the season Mike Trout had for the Angels back in 2013 (8.9), ahead of even the season Trout had last year when he won AL MVP (7.9) and ahead of the season Eddie Mathews had for the Milwaukee Braves back in 1953 (8.3) when he hit 47 home runs, the most ever by a player 22 or younger.  But some people don’t like WAR so we can look at his slash line also, the ONLY other player to have slash line like Harper’s or better at the age of 22 or younger is Ted Williams back in 1941 (.406/.553/.735).  And do you know the last time any player had a slash line like Harper’s or better, it was Barry Bonds in 2004 and guess what he won, NL MVP.  So before you say that Cespedes deserves to be NL MVP or even really be in the discussions, think about this, Harper’s current slash line has only been produced 27 times, by 12 players, 7 of whom are in the Hall of Fame but I know the Nationals aren’t going to make the playoffs so Harper can’t be as valuable to his team.