Why Francisco Lindor should win AL Rookie of the Year

When you hear someone say American League or AL Rookie of the Year admit it the first name that you think of is Houston Astros’ star shortstop Carlos Correa.  But there is another candidate who has been sneaky good and could take home the award.  That candidate is also a shortstop, but this one hails about 1,300 miles north in the The Rock and Roll Capital of the World.  Francisco Lindor, the shortstop for the Cleveland Indians is only 21, already one of the best shortstops in baseball and is the AL Rookie of the Year candidate that has my vote even if many have already handed the award to Correa.

Lindor was called up on June 14, 2015 and has since played 86 games posting a Wins Above Replacement of 3.8, while Correa was called up on June 8, 2015 and has since played 87 games posting a Wins Above Replacement of 2.7.  If you look at some other offensive metrics however they are neck and neck, such as they both have a wOBA of .357.  Then if you look at weighted runs created plus (wRC+) Lindor sits at 128, while Correa sits at 127.  So while they are both well above league average (28% and 27% respectively) only one of them can win the award.  As you can see they are pretty equal in terms of overall offensive, with Correa maybe having the slight advantage being a power hitting shortstop (18 HRs vs. Lindor’s 10 HR).  But defense is where Lindor takes home the award.

Too often people see web gems that players make and automatically think that a guy must be a good defensive player.  When in actuality there is no correlation between the two and Carlos Correa is a prime example of this (at least in 2015).  For example, he has made some of the best plays in baseball this year (as you can see below) but if you look at the metrics he is a well below average defensive shortstop (once again at least in 2015) while Lindor is in that top tier.  

The Cleveland Indians’ shortstops not named Francisco Lindor have a combined to cost the Indians 1 run, while Lindor has saved 7 on his own, which is good enough to rank fifth among all MLB shortstops, while Correa’s -2 would be tied for 14^th.  Another advanced defensive metric Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) also shows just how good Lindor is at fielding his position.  Through 751.1 defensive innings he has a UZR of 6.7 which ranks 7^th in all of baseball.  And if you adjust it per 150 defensive games he has a UZR/150 of 15.1 which ranks 5^th in all of baseball.  Compare this to Correa who has a UZR of -4.1 which ranks 17^th and a UZR/150 of -10.9 which ranks 23^rd, right ahead of Marcus Semien of the Oakland Athletics who you will never hear anyone call a good defensive player.  Overall defensive value ranks Lindor (10.5) first on the Indians, 8^th among MLB shortstops and 17^th among all MLB players.  While it ranks Correa (-0.2) 28^th on the Astros, 21^st among MLB shortstops and 83^rd among all MLB players.  But my absolute favorite Lindor statistic is his inside edge fielding, where he has fielded 83.3% of the plays ruled unlikely (10-40% chance of being fielded), 77.8% of the plays ruled even (40-60% chance of being fielded), 100.0% of the plays ruled likely (60-90% chance of being fielded) and 96.0% of the plays ruled routine (90-100% chance of being fielded).  While there is a 433 defensive innings difference between Lindor and the consensus best defensive shortstop in all of baseball, Andrelton Simmons, Lindor’s percentages are not only better but they blow Simmons away in fact (unlikely: 30.0%, even: 33.3%, likely: 83.3%, routine: 99.5%).  There is one exception to this and that is plays ruled remote (1-10% chance of being fielded) where Lindor has not made any of these, Simmons has made 6.7% of them in 2015.  Then compare this to Correa who has fielded 60% of the unlikely plays, 60% of the even plays, 81.8% of the likely plays and 96.6% of the routine plays, in about the same number of defensive innings.

Carlos Correa has the talent to be the top shortstop in Major League Baseball and one of the elite players in baseball and in a few years most likely will be.  But for the moment Francisco Lindor is the all around better player and the top rookie in the American League and it is for that reason that he should win American League Rookie of the Year in 2015.

The Bryce Harper vs. Yoenis Cespedes MVP Debate

The Most Valuable Player or MVP is not always a player from the best team or even a player on a team that makes the playoffs, the MVP is the player who means the most to his team win or lose.  The Baseball Writers' Association of America tells their members very little in regard to who “qualifies” as an MVP candidate.  They do send out a letter every year though and one of the things they do specifically state is that “the MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier”, that’s because a team makes the playoffs not a single player by himself, a player should not be looked up as better because his team is in first place, just like a player shouldn’t be looked upon worse because his team is in last place.  Just look at Ernie Banks, one of the greatest baseball players ever.  He won NL MVP in both 1958 and 1959 despite the Cubs finishing 10 games under .500 in ’58 and 6 games under .500 in ’59.  Are people looking back to those years and saying he didn’t deserve to win MVP because the Chicago Cubs didn’t make the playoffs, no they are not.  Look at Ryan Howard in 2006, he finished the year hitting .313 with 58 home runs and won NL MVP based off his numbers, he wasn’t wrongfully penalized by voters because the Phillies finished 12 games back of the Mets in the NL East.  Then we can look at the inverse of that, in 1992 Dennis Eckersley won AL MVP as a member of the Oakland Athletics, a team that won the AL West by 6 games.  Despite his team making the playoffs he did not deserve to win MVP in 1992, he wasn’t even the best MVP candidate on his own team, Mark McGwire was.  Why should a player’s MVP candidacy be disputed because of the other 24 players on a team’s roster and because of decisions made by his own coaches and members of the team’s front office?

Ever since Yoenis Cespedes had his first multi-hit game for the New York Mets on August 3^rd against the Marlins, a game in which he had three hits all doubles and four RBIs in a 12-1 win, he has appeared in the National League Most Valuable Player discussion.  Then on August 21^st against the Colorado Rockies when he went five for six with three home runs, a double, seven RBIs and a stolen base this discussion became part of the MVP debate and the talks really escalated.  At this point they were 12-6 with him and this was the beginning of a seven game winning streak, the second five game winning streak they had in their brief time with Cespedes.

Since that time he has hit nine more home runs, bringing him up to fourteen in his first 36 games with the Mets, including six already in the first eight games of September.  Over those same eight games he has 16 of the Mets 84 hits (19.048%) and has accounted for 13 of their 53 RBIs (24.528%).  So while those numbers might look ridiculous even for an eight game period there is another MVP candidate who has played even better not only over those eight games, not only over the whole span of Cespedes being a member of the Mets, but over the course of the whole 2015 season, Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.

Cespedes as a member of the Met: .312/.357/.675

Harper since the Cespedes trade: .352/.491/.600

Cespedes in all of 2015: .298/.333/.554

Harper in all of 2015: .336/.467/.657

This extreme differential in on base percentage can be attributed to the contrast in walks.  Since becoming a member of the Mets, Cespedes has walked nine times and 28 times total in 2015 compared to Harper who has walked 35 times just since Cespedes became a Met and 109 times in 2015, which ranks second in baseball to only Joey Votto.  So while Cespedes and his OPS of 1.032 (36 games) have been a great addition to the Mets, the Nationals would be one of the worst offensive teams in baseball without Bryce Harper and his MLB best OPS of 1.124 and his MLB best wRC+ of 201 (0.104 and 23 ahead of second place Miguel Cabrera) (2015 season).

Bryce Harper has not only been the best player in the National League and the best player in all of baseball this year but the season he is putting up at the age of 22 is one of the best ever.  According to baseball reference WAR calculations if the season ended today Bryce Harper would finish with a WAR of 9.0 which would be good for 8^th best ever by a player 22 or younger, ahead of the season Mike Trout had for the Angels back in 2013 (8.9), ahead of even the season Trout had last year when he won AL MVP (7.9) and ahead of the season Eddie Mathews had for the Milwaukee Braves back in 1953 (8.3) when he hit 47 home runs, the most ever by a player 22 or younger.  But some people don’t like WAR so we can look at his slash line also, the ONLY other player to have slash line like Harper’s or better at the age of 22 or younger is Ted Williams back in 1941 (.406/.553/.735).  And do you know the last time any player had a slash line like Harper’s or better, it was Barry Bonds in 2004 and guess what he won, NL MVP.  So before you say that Cespedes deserves to be NL MVP or even really be in the discussions, think about this, Harper’s current slash line has only been produced 27 times, by 12 players, 7 of whom are in the Hall of Fame but I know the Nationals aren’t going to make the playoffs so Harper can’t be as valuable to his team.

                  

The St. Louis Cardinals: 2015 vs. 2004 vs. 1944

The St. Louis Cardinals are 86-46 and sit at a whopping 40 games over .500 for the first time since 2005, when they finished the season with a record of 100-62.  Not only are they 40 games over .500, but they are with 30 games still to play and according to The Elias Sports Bureau this is only the third time in the history of their franchise that this has occurred with the other two years being 1944 and 2004 (both years they won 105 games).

In 1944 the St. Louis Cardinals (105–49) won the World Series by defeating the St. Louis Browns four games ­to two.  Then in 2004 they once again made it to the World Series but this time were swept four games to none by the Boston Red Sox, but we can excuse that because they were busy ended the "Curse of the Bambino”.  So now here we are in 2015 and the Cardinals once again seemed poised to finish the season with the best record in baseball.

September 2, 1944 NL Standings:

St. Louis Cardinals: 91-32

Pittsburgh Pirates: 74-50

Cincinnati Reds: 68-52

New York Giants: 58-69

Chicago Cubs: 55-66

Boston Braves: 53-75

Brooklyn Dodgers: 50-77

Philadelphia Phillies: 48-76

September 2, 2004 NL Standings (top 8 to match 1944):

St. Louis Cardinals: 89-44

Atlanta Braves: 78-54

Los Angeles Dodgers: 78-55

Chicago Cubs: 73-60

San Francisco Giants: 73-63

San Diego Padres: 71-62

Florida Marlins: 70-62

Houston Astros: 70-63

September 2, 2015 NL Standings (top 8 to match 1944):

St. Louis Cardinals: 86-46

Pittsburgh Pirates: 79-51

Chicago Cubs: 75-56

Los Angeles Dodgers: 74-57

New York Mets: 73-59

San Francisco Giants: 69-63

Washington Nationals: 66-65

Arizona Diamondbacks: 65-68

So looking at these standings the first thing that sticks out is that the 2015 Cardinals are three wins behind where they were in 2004 and five wins behind where they were in 1944, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  So let’s look at Pythagorean expectation, a formula created by Bill James to estimate how many games a team should have won based off runs scored and runs allowed. ­­­­­­­

           

Based off this, at this point in the season in 1944 the Cardinals should have had 93 wins instead of 91, in 2004 the Cardinals should of had 84 wins instead of 89, and the current 2015 Cardinals should have 84 instead of 86.  The first thing about this that sticks out is that the 2015 and 2004 Cardinals are on the same track in terms of Pythagorean Win.  In 2004, the Cardinals should have won 100 games according to Pythagorean win, for this to be the case now in 2015 the Cardinals would have to go 16-16 the rest of the way which is very unlikely considering they still have 14 games to play against the Cincinnati Reds (55-77) and the Milwaukee Brewers (57-75) who both rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of runs scored, team batting average (BA), team on base percentage (OBP), team slugging percentage (SLG) and weighted on base average (wOBA).  But that is just in terms of offense, in terms of pitching they both rank in the bottom half for fielding independent pitching (FIP), walks allowed per nine (BB/9), home runs allowed per nine (HR/9), left on base percentage (LOB%), team WHIP and runs allowed.  That opposes the Cardinals who already walk 8.1% of the time which ranks in the top ten and rank seven in terms of offensive WAR.  They also have the best team ERA by a significant margin, it currently sits at 2.67 with the next closest team being the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 3.21, if broken down as a split between starters and relievers they are rank first in both with a 2.83 by their starters and a 2.34 by their relievers.  Part of this tremendous pitching success has come from their extraordinary left on base percentage (LOB%) of 80.3% which is 4.7% higher than the Kansas City Royals’ 75.6%.  I do have some concerns though, one that their LOB% will regress to league average of about 70-72%.  My other concern is that despite ranking second in team FIP they lead all of baseball in the difference between team ERA and team FIP at negative 0.68 which could lead to regression during this last month and the playoffs, but I have gotten slightly off topic so let’s get back to the comparison.

At this point in the season the 2015 Cardinals’ WAR of 19.7 ranks well behind the 2004 Cardinals’ WAR of 27.6 in terms of WAR and even further behind the 1944 team which put up a team WAR of 29.5.  But that is not the only area where they are well behind.  This year they have a slash line of .256/.323/.395 with a wOBA of .312, a wRC+ of 97 and are striking out 20.2% of the time.  Compare that to 2004 when their slash line was .278/.344/.460 with a wOBA of .344, a wRC+ of 107 and struck out 17.2% of the time and to 1944 when their slash line to end the year was .275/.344/.402 with a wOBA of .352, a wRC+ of 108 and struck out a miniscule 7.6% of the time (less than their walk percentage of 8.8%).

So while they not be hitting at the same clip that they did in the previous two years their pitching has been better than both.  This starts with their strikeout per nine of 8.00 which is significantly higher than the 6.45 they had in 2004 and almost double the 4.02 they had back in 1944.  Then if you compare ERA, in 2015 they have the same exact 2.67 they had back in 1944 and only a slightly higher FIP: 3.35 (2015) vs. 3.16 (1944).

So while the 2015 Cardinals might not be the same offensive juggernaut they were in 2004 and 1944 their pitching more than balances it out and if history tells us anything it’s that the Cardinals should at least make it to the World Series if not win the whole thing.

*WAR taken from Fangraphs calculations