2016 Hall of Fame Ballot

Well with 2016 Hall of Fame Ballots due today and me not having an actual vote I thought I would put out my picks so here they are: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Gary Sheffield

Full 2016 Hall of Fame Ballot:
Garret Anderson
Brad Ausmus
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Luis Castillo
Roger Clemens
David Eckstein
Jim Edmonds
Nomar Garciaparra
Troy Glaus
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mark Grudzielanek
Mike Hampton
Trevor Hoffman
Jason Kendall
Jeff Kent
Mike Lowell
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Mike Mussina
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Mike Sweeney
Alan Trammell
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker
Randy Winn

Jason Heyward vs. Adam Eaton

Outfielder Jason Heyward just signed an eight-year, $184 million contract with the Chicago Cubs and not even five minutes later I saw the first tweet comparing him to White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton.  And while Eaton is a very good player and I am not trying to offend him, they do not have the same kind of value, Heyward is significantly better.

I have seen people mostly use HRs, runs scored, RBIs and batting average to compare the two players.  First off only half of those statistics have any value when comparing player value so we can immediately knock off runs scored and RBIs because they evaluate a team not a player.

Jason Heyward

HRs: 13

BA: .293
OBP: .359
SLG: .439

wOBA: .346

wRC+: 121

Adam Eaton

HRs: 14

BA: .287
OBP: .361
SLG: .431

wOBA: .346

wRC+: 118

As you can see the people using these statistics are right when they were say the two were very similar at the plate in 2015 but these statistics do not tell the whole story.  Heyward walked 9.2% of the time in 2015, while Eaton walked 8.4% of the time, once again very similar.  Heyward stole 23 bags in 2015, Eaton stole 18, again close, but the comparison basically ends there.

Heyward struck out 14.8% of the time in 2015, while Eaton struck out 19.0%, not very close.  While Heyward has decreased his strikeout rate every year since 2012, when he posted a career high 23.3%, Eaton has increased his strikeout rate from 14.6% to the current 19.0% over the same time period.  This difference in strikeout rate begins with the percentage of pitches they swing at outside and inside of the strike zone which is where Heyward was better.

Jason Heyward

O-Swing %: 25.7%

Z-Swing %: 63.1%

Swing %: 41.7%

Contact %: 84.2%

Adam Eaton

O-Swing %: 29.2%

Z-Swing %: 60.4%

Swing %: 44.0%

Contact %:  83.8%

As you can see Heyward had better plate discipline in 2015 which resulted in a better overall contact rate and while a difference of only 0.4% may not seem like much it helped Heyward finish the season with a strikeout rate 4.2% better than Eaton and a swinging strike rate 0.5% better, despite Eaton seeing 4.6% more of his pitches inside the zone.

Then there is defense which is where Heyward truly shines.   Heyward is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league.  He finishing the season 38 defensive runs saved better than Eaton (Heyward: +24, Eaton: -14), even if he finished 18 defensive runs saved behind Kevin Kiermaier.  Heyward is the much better defensive player in all aspects and it is not even close.

Jason Heyward

DRS: +24 (3)

Arm: 5.2 (9)

Range: 16.2 (2)

UZR: 22.6 (2)

Adam Eaton

DRS: -14 (57)

Arm: -2.8 (48)

Range: -6.8 (52)

UZR: -10.2 (56)

Jason Heyward ranks in the top 10 for every single one of these categories among qualifying outfielders (rankings in parenthesis above) while among the 60 qualifying outfielders, Eaton ranks near the bottom.  This significant defensive difference resulted in Heyward posting an fWAR of 6.0 in the 2015 season which ranked 11^th among all position players and 6^th among all qualifying outfielders, while Eaton finished with an fWAR of 3.6 which ranked 47^th among all position players and 20^th among qualifying outfielders.

In the environment of baseball today defensive is more important than ever and teams are valuing it that way.  And while Jason Heyward and Adam Eaton had similar offensive numbers in 2015, Heyward is a true five-tool player and one of the absolute best defensive players in the league and is being paid as such.

Is Jeff Samardzija about to be vastly overpaid?

A source confirmed to Bruce Levine that Jeff Samardzija has a five-year, $90 million contract on the table from an undisclosed team.  While Samardzija's representatives are informing teams that he has at least one $100 million offer on the table also from an undisclosed team.

With the exception of 2014 Jeff Samardzija has been a less than adequate option for teams as a starting pitcher but despite this his value is expected to be around $18 million a year on the free agent market which makes sense if you calculate it using $7 million per 1 WAR but $5 million per 1 WAR makes more sense to me.  Using this it would put his value at around $13.5 million per year considering in 3 of the last 4 seasons he has put up a WAR of 2.7 and I realize he would not likely accept that which is why I previously predicted him receiving 5-years $77.5 million.

For the sake of argument let's only look at seasons where Samardzija threw more that 50 innings so from 2011 on.  Based off this he put up a career worst FIP of 4.23 and a career high xFIP of 4.31 in 2015 while putting up a career low K% of 17.9%.  But why might this be.

In 2015 Samardzija's average fastball velocity was only slightly down at 94.3 MPH compared to 94.6 in both 2013 and 2014 so at first glance this might not appear to be a real problem but that's not completely true (he threw 108 pitches 96+ in 2015 down from 195 in 2014 and 222 in 2013).  This average fastball velocity is in the same area of Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha and his fastball results whiffs and called strikes at about the same rates:

Shelby Miller: Whiffs: 10.6%, Called Strikes: 16.0%

Michael Wacha: Whiffs: 9.4%, Called Strikes: 17.4%

Jeff Samardzija: Whiffs: 9.1%, Called Strikes: 16.2%

The difference then becomes what happens if the pitch doesn't result in a strike, which is where Samardzija falls behind.  Miller allowed hits on his fastball 5.9% of the time, Wacha allowed hits on his fastball 5.5% of the time and then there was Samardzija who allowed hits on his fastball 7.4% of the time.  If you look at their four-seam fastballs there is an interesting difference.  While their average velocities are all about the same, the average perceived speed show a significant difference.

                    Wacha: Average Speed: 94.55, Average Perceived Speed: 95.88, Difference: +1.33

                     Miller: Average Speed: 94.54, Average Perceived Speed: 95.41, Difference: +0.87

                 Samardzija: Average Speed: 94.57, Average Perceived Speed: 94.39, Difference: -0.18

This tells that while they have similar actual velocities, Samardzija's fastball appears slower to the batter which could be causing it to be hit more often.  While this could be one of the factors causing Samardzija to have below average effectiveness on his fastball, his fastball isn't the only problem.  His slider which has been an effective pitch for him since 2011 fell off in 2015, which is shown in the following chart that shows pitch runs above average.  His slider which has consistently been his best pitch throughout his career became his least effective pitch in 2015 (-6.6 runs above average) while he threw it a career high 24.6% of the time.  And his fastball returned to the ineffectiveness it was for the majority of his career (-4.5 runs above average) while he threw it a career low 39.6% of the time, 15.6% less often than 2014.  In fact his only pitch that was effective in 2015 was his cutter and it was barely better than average at 0.3.

Overall Samardzija produced a higher swinging rate on both pitches outside the zone (34.8%) and inside the zone (69.3%) in 2015 which allowed him to produce an overall swinging rate of 51.4%, 2.2% above his previous career high of 49.2%.  And while on first thought this might seem like a positive it wasn't in 2015.  This is because he allowed career high contact rates on both pitches outside the zone (67.5%) and inside the zone (87.8%), which resulted in overall contact rate of 80.7%.  These numbers aren't just increases from previous years they are significant jumps of 4.4%, 2.2% and 3.4% from the rates he produced in 2014.  And while those rates increased, his first pitch strike rate dropped from 65.5% in 2014 to 62.4% in 2015 and while this 62.4% is still the second highest rate of his career it did not result in anywhere near the level of production he put up in 2014 when he threw a first pitch strike 3.1% more often.  Samardzija also produced swinging strikes at a career low 9.8% a drop of 1.3% from 2014 and 2.3% less than his career high of 12.1% in 2012.

So while it is not truly known whether Jeff Samardzija will put up numbers similar to 2014 or similar to the majority of his career in the 2016 season, teams seem willing to take the risk on him.  In my opinion having someone eat innings like he does is extremely important but you could find someone to eat innings and put up similar production for much less money, just look at Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Ian Kennedy and even Bartolo Colon and Alfredo Simon for that matter.

Update: Jeff Samardzija has signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the San Francisco Giants            

Top 50 MLB Free Agents

1. Jason Heyward – 26
• Contract Prediction: 9 years, $198 million, with an opt out clause somewhere around year 4 or 5
• Team Prediction: Angels
• Heyward is as elite a defender a team can get to play right field and has some power potential (hit 27 in 2012, but only 14 in 2013, 11 in 2014 and 13 in 2015), with the ability to hit around .290 and steal 20+ bases.  Is a perfect fit for the Angels because they could easily shift Calhoun to left, slotting Heyward into right, giving them one of the best if not the very best outfields in baseball.
2. David Price – 30
• Contract Prediction: 6 years, $189 million
• Team Prediction: Cubs
• David Price has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2010 and is a true ace who is aiming for a contract in the area of Kershaw and Scherzer.  The Cubs have the money to pay this enormous contract and signing him vastly improves their rotation where they struggled to find consistency behind Arrieta and Lester.
3. Zack Greinke – 32
• Contract Prediction: 5 years, $165 million
• Team Prediction: Dodgers
• Zack Greinke just opted out of his remaining deal with the Dodgers but him resigning is the most logical decision for both sides.
4. Jordan Zimmerman – 29
• Contract Prediction: 7 years, $161 million
• Team Prediction: Yankees
• The Yankees seriously need another top of the rotation starter to pair with Tanaka and Zimmerman fits the bill.  Since 2011 his bWAR of 19.5 ranks 11^th among pitchers behind the likes of Price and Greinke both of whom will receive contracts upwards of $31 million making $23 million to Zimmerman a bargain.
5. Johnny Cueto – 29
• Contract Prediction: 6 years, $162 million
• Team Prediction: Red Sox
• He had a brutal period of time after being traded to the Royals but still finished the season strong throwing a two hit complete game in game two of the World Series and threw eight innings of two hit baseball facing elimination in game five of the ALDS.  He has been the Ace of the Red’s rotation for years and there is no reason he still couldn’t be one for the Red Sox who are in desperate need for one.
6. Alex Gordon – 31
• Contract Prediction: 5 years, $90 million
• Team Prediction: Royals
• Gordon just declined his option for 2016 and is expected to decline his qualifying offer but is still expected to resign with the Royals.
7. Justin Upton – 28
• Contract Prediction: 7 years, $147
• Team Prediction: Yankees
• I don’t really like this signing but I think Cashman and the Yankees are going to go out and sign some big free agents this offseason and I think Justin Upton is one of those signings.
8. Ian Desmond – 30
• Contract Prediction: Mets
• Team Prediction: 5 years, $76.25 million
• With the exception of the first half of 2015 he has been one of the best shortstops in baseball over the last couple seasons and this contract would make him the third highest paid shortstop in baseball right between Tulo and Elvis Andrus.
9. Yoenis Cespedes – 30
• Contract Prediction: 6 years, $126 million
• Team Prediction: White Sox
• Was out of this world after being traded to the Mets hitting 17 HRs in 57 games and hitting 35 on the year.  His slash line of .291/.328/.542 is way off his career numbers and not numbers that I think he replicates in 2016 or beyond considering he strikes out 20.9% in his career while only walking 6.1% of the time.  That isn’t saying he still won’t be a productive player because he will be and I think signing with the White Sox is a good move for both sides.  The White Sox’ outfield ranked 26 in terms of WAR in 2015 and Yoenis Cespedes vastly improves that.  Best case scenario for the White Sox would be to sign Cespedes to play left, shift Melky Cabrera to a full time DH role to allow them to bench, release or trade Adam LaRoche (still owed $13 million in 2016) who was one of the least productive players in all of baseball in 2015.
10. Ben Zobrist – 34
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $60 million, with a vesting option for a 4^th year
• Team Prediction: Yankees
• The ultimate utility man in baseball with the ability to play almost every position on the field while hitting around .275 with an OBP of around .355, since 2009 he ranks 5^th among position player in bWAR at 39.3 just behind the likes of Cano, Miggy, Beltre and Votto and ahead of McCutchen and Longoria.
11. Dexter Fowler – 29
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $40 million, with a mutual option for a 3^rd year
• Team Prediction: Cubs
• I think the Cubs overpay here so that they can sign him to a shorter deal allowing for Almora to take over center in the near future.  The reason I don’t think Fowler rejects this two-year deal is because the Cubs have a legitimate chance of winning the World Series in the next two years and then he is once again a free agent at 31.
12. Matt Wieters – 29
• Contract Prediction: 5 years, $65 million
• Team Prediction: Nationals
• A good catcher is hard to find and one with offensive upside is even harder to find.  The Nationals ranked second to last in production from their catchers in 2015 and if they want to compete in 2016 it starts with a massive improvement behind the plate
13. Kenta Maeda – 27
• Contract Prediction: 6 years, $96 million
• Team Prediction: Diamondbacks
• Over the last eight seasons he has absolutely carved up the Japan Central League with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.048 across 1509.2 innings while maintaining a K/9 of 7.4.  While it is yet to be seen whether the Hiroshima Carp will post their star pitcher if they do he will surely be one of the most coveted players on the free agent market.
14. Mike Leake – 27
• Contract Prediction: 6 years, $108 million
• Team Prediction: Giants
• The Giants only have four set members of their rotation in 2016, only three members of their rotation signed beyond 2016 and only Bumgarner and Heston beyond the 2017 season.  So adding Mike Leake for 2016 and the future is an investment I think they have to make, especially if they want to continue their streak of winning the World Series every even year. (2010, 2012, 2014).
15. Jeff Samardzija – 30
• Contract Prediction: 5 years, $77.5
• Team Prediction: Dodgers
• The Dodgers have no problem spending massive amounts of money and I think they sign Samardzija to be their 3^rd starter since they had trouble finding quality starts from pitchers not named Kershaw or Greinke in 2015.
16. Daniel Murphy – 30
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $54 million
• Team Prediction: Angels
• The Angels ranked 26^th in terms of production from the second base position in 2015 and while Murphy won’t be the player he was in the first two rounds of the playoffs he is still one of the better offensive options in baseball at second base and is a much better option than either Giavotella or Featherston.
17. Mat Latos – 27
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $31 million
• Team Prediction: Pirates
• Mat Latos struggled mightily in 2015 which will lower his value in the market which plays right into the hands of the Pirates who seem to sign pitchers everyone else has given up on every year and turn them into viable starters
18. Howie Kendrick – 32
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $44 million
• Team Prediction: White Sox
• The White Sox ranked dead last in terms of production from the second base position in 2015 and Howie Kendricks is one of the better options to fill that role and the cheapest option among them.
19. Scott Kazmir – 31
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $52 million
• Team Prediction: Astros
• Kazmir is coming off one of the better years of his career and has put up very good numbers over the last few years and while he will he won’t get paid like a top of the rotation starter his numbers prove that he is a very good option for the Astros to keep behind Dallas Keuchel.
20. Colby Rasmus – 29
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $48 million
• Team Prediction: Orioles
• Colby Rasmus is one of the better power bats on the market this offseason coming off a season that saw him hit 25 HRs in the regular season before hitting 4 more in 6 postseason games.  While he strikes out at a very high rate (31.8% in 2015) and hits for a low average (.238 in 2015) power bats are a commodity that teams will pay for, especially a team that struggled for production from any outfielder not named Adam Jones.
21. Chris Davis – 29
• Contract Prediction: 5 years, $105 million
• Team Prediction: Blue Jays
• This might seem like a weird prediction given their current lineup but he hit 7 home runs against them this year and has hit 19 home runs against them over the last three years which is his most against any team and he is a better everyday option than Justin Smoak.
22. Yasiel Sierra – 24
• Contract Prediction: 6 years, $48 million
• Team Prediction: Yankees
• Sierra is one of the top Cuban free agents, he fastball average 94.7 MPH at the recent perfect game tournament and while he needs to improve his control a lot to be a viable major league option you can never have enough young flame throwers and I think the Yankees go out and get this one.
23. John Lackey – 37
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $34 million
• Team Prediction: Cardinals
• While his FIP of 3.57 does not support his ERA of 2.77, Lackey produced his best season in terms of WAR since 2007 in 2015 and was a huge part of the Cardinals rotation and I think he gets paid like it.
24. Denard Span – 31
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $44 million
• Team Prediction: Mets
• When healthy Span is one of the more talented outfielders on the free agent market with the ability to steal bases and hit around .300 which is a real asset at the top of any team’s lineup.
25. Yovani Gallardo – 29
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $52 million
• Team Prediction: Rangers
• Gallardo was a big part of the Rangers rotation in 2015 and was a big reason they were in playoff contention the entire year even after losing Darvish and everyone assumed they were done.  In 2016 they would get Darvish back to go with Cole Hamels add in Gallardo and the Rangers have a very good 1-2-3 punch.
26. Ian Kennedy – 30
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $48 million
• Team Prediction: Orioles
27. Byung-ho Park – 29
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $40 million
• Team Prediction: Red Sox
28. Hisashi Iwakuma – 34
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $45 million
• Team Prediction: Mariners
29. Wei-Yin Chen – 30
• Contract Prediction: 5 years, $72.5 million
• Team Prediction: Tigers
30. Austin Jackson – 28
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $30 million
• Team Prediction: Tigers
31. Darren O’Day – 33
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $27 million
• Team Prediction: Tigers
32. Marco Estrada – 32
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $29 million
• Team Prediction: Blue Jays
33. Brett Anderson – 27
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $25 million
• Team Prediction: Dodgers
34. David Freese – 32
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $27 million
• Team Prediction: Angels
35. J.A. Happ – 33
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $25 million
• Team Prediction: Pirates
36. Ryan Madson – 35
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $18 million
• Team Prediction: Royals
37. Joakim Soria – 31
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $25 million
• Team Prediction: Twins
38. Doug Fister – 31
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $22 million
• Team Prediction: Royals
39. Tim Lincecum – 31
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $14 million
• Team Prediction: Giants
40. Tyler Clippard – 30
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $24 million
• Team Prediction: Mariners
41. Asdrubal Cabrera – 29
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $16 million
• Team Prediction: Padres
42. Alexei Ramirez – 34
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $12 million
• Team Prediction: White Sox
43. Shawn Kelley – 31
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $21 million
• Team Prediction: Red Sox
44. Gerardo Parra – 28
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $24 million
• Team Prediction: Padres
45. Trevor Cahill – 27
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $5 million
• Team Prediction: Cubs
46. Tony Sipp – 32
• Contract Prediction: Astros
• Team Prediction: 3 years, $15 million
47. Chris Young – 32
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $12 million
• Team Prediction: Rangers
48. Mark Lowe – 32
• Contract Prediction: 3 years, $15 million
• Team Prediction: Blue Jays
49. Ah-seop Son – 27
• Contract Prediction: 4 years, $34 million
• Team Prediction: Mariners
50. Mike Napoli - 34
• Contract Prediction: 2 years, $18 million
• Team Prediction: Rockies

Hosmer At The Plate

First off congrats to the Kansas City Royals on brining a World Championship back to their fans for the first time since 1985.  They never gave up and were the kings of the comeback, winning a World Series in five games that saw them trailing going into the eighth inning four times and trailing going into the ninth inning three times.

Over the last couple days there has been a lot of talk about this play by Hosmer where he scored the game trying run on a Perez groundout with one out in the 9th and whether he should have scored and a lot of people seem to believe that a "decent" throw by Mets' first baseman Lucas Duda would have easily had him at the plate.  I'm not so sure that is true though, but let me explain.

The whole play, from the time the ball was hit into play by Salvador Perez from the time the ball was thrown past Mets' catcher Travis d'Arnaud was all of about six seconds.  And the time from when Duda caught the throw from David Wright and threw it wide of d'Arnaud was less than two seconds.  Hosmer's secondary lead was tracked at about 9.5 feet leaving about 80.5 feet between him and home plate, but then David Wright took more steps than he should have to make the throw to first.  This left Hosmer about 57 feet from home when the ball reached Duda's glove and Hosmer was tracked with a max speed of 19.7 MPH which converts to 28.893 feet per second.  This means that if there had been a full two seconds Hosmer would have covered about 57.786 feet at his max speed and while I highly doubt he was traveling his max speed those full 57 feet, that still makes the play extremely close before d'Arnaud has to put on what would have been a difficult tag on a diving Hosmer.  At the end of the day we will never really know what would have happened if Duda had made the throw to home on target but I am under the belief that Hosmer still would have been safe and still would have tied the game.

Royals - Mets: 2015 World Series Preview

The 2015 World Series begins tomorrow in Kansas City, Missouri pitting in the National League Champion New York Mets against the American League Champion Kansas City Royals.  The Royals get the honor of having home-field advantage thanks to Ned Yost managing the American League to a 6-3 victory in the 2015 All-Star Game.

The Royals will be making their 4th overall and 2nd consecutive appearance in the World Series (lost to the Giants in 2014) after defeating the Houston Astros in 5 games in the ALDS and defeating the Toronto Blue Jays in 6 games in the ALCS.  This appearance makes the Royals the first team since the Texas Rangers in 2010 and 2011 to play in consecutive World Series, the Rangers lost both times, in 2010 to the Giants and in 2011 to the Cardinals.  The last time the Royals won the World Series was in 1985 when they defeated the Cardinals in 7 games.  And while we do not get a rematch of that series which was seen as a real possibility at the start of the postseason considering the Cardinals won 100 games and finished with the best regular season record in baseball and the Royals finished with the 4th best record in baseball and the best in the American League at 95-67, we do get to see this Royals team go up against some of the best young pitchers in the game.

The Mets will be making their 5th overall appearance and their 1st appearance since 2000 in the World Series.  It will also be the first World Series they will have played at Citi Field which opened in 2009.  They reached this point by defeating the Dodgers in 5 game in the NLDS and by sweeping the Cubs in the NLCS, behind stellar starting pitching and the now legendary Daniel Murphy. While the Royals are 1 and 3 (1985) in World Series appearances the Mets are 2 and 2, defeating the Red Sox in 1986 and the Orioles in 1969, but like the Royals they also lost their most recent appearance, 2000 loss to the Yankees.

I am going to stick with my preseason prediction and say the Royals win this series but instead of the 7 games I said they would defeat the Nationals in and then the 7 games I said they would defeat the Cubs in I am going to say that they defeat the Mets in 6 games and bring a title back to Kansas City for the first time since 1985.  I am also going to stick with my original World Series MVP prediction of Eric Hosmer.

What has to happen for either team to win:

• If the Royals want to bring a title back to Kansas City they need the most questionable part of their team, their starting position to step up and do their part.  The bullpen will always be there for them but if their starters can go at least 6 innings in each of their starts and keep it close it would leave the Royals in very good shape.
• If the Mets want to bring a title back to Queens they need their starters to continue to pitch and be absolutely dominate like they have been throughout the playoffs because they are at a immense disadvantage late in games, with the exception of Jeurys Familia.  But Familia can't and won't pitch the 8th and 9th inning of every game so some of other members of their bullpen, such as Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed to step up and pitch like the closers they have been in the past.
• If Daniel Murphy plays like he has been the series swings in the Mets favor
• Murphy hit a career high 14 HRs this season in 130 games, he has seven this postseason in 9 games.  If he had hit HRs at this rate across 499 regular season ABs he would have hit about 91.92 HRs.
• He has homered in 7 postseason games and 6 straight games in the 2015 postseason.
• Only Barry Bonds has more in a single postseason with 8 games in 2002
• No one has homered in more consecutive games
• Only 3 players hit more than 7 HRs in a single postseason (Murphy is at 39 plate appearances so far in the 2015 postseason)
• Nelson Cruz 8 HRs in the 2011 postseason - 70 plate appearances
• Carlos Beltran 8 HRs in the 2004 postseason - 56 plate appearances
• Barry Bonds 8 HRs in the 2002 postseason - 74 plate appearances

Notes:

• The Royals
• They struck out at the lowest rate in baseball by a large margin in 2015 at 15.9%
• Their batters hit .269 which was tied for 2nd best in baseball
• Royals' pitchers generated strikeouts 19.0% of the time in 2015, which ranked 23rd
• The best bullpen in terms of batting average allowed at .211
• Best contact rate in baseball at 82.0%
• 3498 pitches thrown over 95 MPH
• 1464 pitches thrown over 95 MPH by their 4 World Series starters
• 492 pitches thrown over 95 MPH so far this postseason (11 games)
• 286 (58.13%) thrown by their 4 World Series starters
• The Mets
• They struck out at a rate of 21.0% in 2015, which ranked 18th
• Their batters hit .244 which was tied for 2nd to last and only .001 better than the 30th ranked Padres
• Mets' pitchers generated strikeouts 22.1% of the time in 2015, which ranked 8th
• The Mets bullpen ranked 5th with a batting average allowed of .230
• 10th best contact rate in baseball at 80.2%
• 4948 pitches thrown over 95 MPH in the regular season
• 3663 pitches thrown over 95 MPH by their 4 World Series starters
• 470 pitches thrown over 95 MPH so far this postseason (9 games)
• 387 (82.34%) thrown by their 4 World Series starters

World Series Schedule: 

Tuesday, October 27

Game 1: Mets @ Royals

Harvey (13-8) at Volquez (13-9)

Wednesday, October 28

Game 2: Mets @ Royals

deGrom (14-8) at Cueto (11-13)

Friday, October 30

Game 3: Royals @ Mets

Ventura (13-8) at Syndergaard (9-7)

Saturday, October 31

Game 4: Royals @ Mets

Young (11-6) at  Matz (4-0)

Sunday, November 1

Game 5 if necessary: Royals @ Mets

Tuesday, November 3

Game 6  if necessary: Mets @ Royals

Wednesday, November 4

Game 7  if necessary: Mets @ Royals

One of the single greatest offensive seasons ever?

Well we all know that Bryce Harper had an extraordinary season, but just how insane was it.  In the 2015 season Harper has a slash line of .330/.460/.649 while qualifying for the batting title.  A feat that has only been done 34 times by 14 of some of the greatest players ever such as Ruth, Bonds, and Mantle.  If you then account for him having a bWAR of 9.9, the list drops to 20 times by 8 players: Williams, Ruth, Mantle, Hornsby, Gehrig, Foxx, Bonds and Harper.  Add in that Bryce Harper did it all at the age of 22 and the list includes just him and first ballot Hall of Famer Ted Williams

42 or more home runs have been hit 227 times, only 8 times by players 22 or younger.  A batting average over .330 while qualifying for the batting title has been done 799 times, only 29 times by a player 22 or younger.  And a player walking 124 or more times has been accomplished the least often but still 104 times, only 3 times by a player 22 or younger (Harper, Ted Williams, Adam Dunn).  But do you know how many times these three items have been done together?  15 times by 6 players, the list of those players is: Ruth, Bonds, Gehrig, Williams, Giambi and Bryce Harper.  But that is not all.  If you account for his bWAR of 9.9, a feat only done 61 times alone, the list is just Bryce Harper, Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.  Once again accounting for Bryce Harper being 22 and he stands alone.

Not only are his traditional statistical numbers ridiculous but his more advanced statistical numbers only improve upon his season.  Harper finished 2015 with an OPS+ of 195 a feat only accomplished 60 times in the history of baseball, this list once again drops to just him and Ted Williams once accounting for him being only 22.  His Runs Created in 2015 was 161 which has been done 84 times, he is one of 3 players to do this in their age 22 season, the other two are Joe DiMaggio in 1937 and Ted Williams in 1941. His Situations Runs (RE24/boLI) was a ridiculous 84.345, which has only been done 32 times and Harper is the only one to do it at the age of 22 or younger.  The next closest to him in 2015 was Joey Votto who still ended the year far behind at 68.970.

Bryce Harper had one of the greatest offensive seasons ever and arguably the greatest by a player at the age of 22 or younger (Ted Williams vs. Bryce Harper at the age of 22 would be a fun debate).  Harper winning National League MVP is a lock and he should honestly win it unanimously.