Friday, October 16, 2015

2015 Division Series Recap and Championship Series Preview

My pre-postseason picks:


ALDS: Royals over Yankees in 5
ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers in 4
ALCS: Royals over Blue Jays in 7
            ALCS MVP: Johnny Cueto

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 4
NLDS: Dodgers over Mets in 3
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers in 5
            NLCS MVP: Kris Bryant

World Series: Royals defeat Cubs in 7
            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

As the the Championship Series begins tonight with a match-up between the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays I figured it would be a good time to recap what has happened so far and give my predictions for the rest of the way.

Postseason to this point (10/16/15)


ALDS: Royals over Astros 3-2
ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers 3-2
ALCS: Royals - Blue Jays

NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals 3-1
NLDS: Mets over Dodgers 3-2
NLCS: Cubs - Mets

Division Series Recaps:


The first division series to conclude was the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals in four games and it was the only series where I correctly picked not only the winner but also the number of games.  The Cardinals took game one behind an absolute gem by John Lackey but were thoroughly overpowered in the following three games.  Highlighted by a game three where Arrieta finally showed some vulnerability allowing 4 runs across 5.2 innings pitched but also struck out 9.  But these 4 runs were nothing as the Cubs went on to hit a major league postseason record six home runs, one by each of the first six batters in the Cubs lineup.  The following day the Cubs finished it off behind a stellar all hands on deck bullpen effort after starter Jason Hammel was pulled in the fourth inning after walking Jhonny Peralta to leadoff the inning.  This was the first time in the history of Wrigley Field that the Cubs had clinched a postseason series at home and it made them the first team to advance.



The next division series to conclude even if it was only by hours was the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers in five games.  Despite game two going 14 innings before the Rangers finally won it that game was completely overshadowed by the events of game 5.  Game five was pretty uneventful heading into the bottom of the 6th inning with the Rangers holding a 2-1 lead.  Then Edwin Encarnación hit a massive home run to tie the game and it woke the crowd in Toronto up big time.  Then we get to the top of the 7th and it looks like the Blue Jays might get out of the inning without allowing any more runs after Rougned Odor reached third with 2 out but then with Shin-Soo Choo at the plate the strangest play of the postseason happened.  Russell Martin went to throw the ball back to Aaron Sanchez but the ball hit the hand and bat of Choo and bounced into play, Odor being heads up came home to score but not before umpire Dale Scott had called time.  This resulted in a long umpire conference that concluded with the run counting and the Rangers taking a 3-2 lead, Choo then immediately struck out to end the half inning.  The top of the 7th was also something that is rare in baseball the Rangers started out the half inning by making three errors, two by shortstop Elvis Andrus, allowing Martin, Pillar and Goins to all reach base with no outs.  After Revere grounded into a fielder's choice MVP candidate Josh Donaldson hit a little blooper that resulted Odor misplayed that scored Pillar to tie the game at 3 but it also resulted in Revere being out at second since he was not running because it appeared to be an easy play for Odor.  With two outs Jose Bautista stepped to the dish and hit the biggest home run in Toronto since Joe Carter in game six of the 1993 World Series.  With a 1-1 count Rangers right-hander Sam Dyson threw Bautista a 97 MPH two-seam fastball that he absolutely crushed to put the Blue Jays ahead for good and send them to the ALCS.



The second game 5 of the division series this one between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros began almost immediately after the Blue Jays and Rangers concluded and this game was nothing compared to the one it was following.  After allowing a two-run home run to Luis Valbuena in the second inning Johnny Cueto did not allow another baserunner striking out eight before handing it off to closer Wade Davis who closed out a decisive 7-2 Royals victory and advanced them to their second consecutive ALCS.



In game two of the Dodgers-Mets series Chase Utley 'slid' into second to break up the double play and in the process broke shortstop Rubén Tejada's leg.  This has sparked a debate that is still going on regarding player safety and what is considered a dirty slide and this one play has overshadowed the rest of the series.  In my opinion while it was a poor attempt at a slide, if you can even call it a slide, it is not a dirty play and within the rules.  Utley's intent was to break-up the double play not to injure Tejada and Major League Baseball has shown in the past that they will allow these types of plays.  A month ago Utley had a worse slide against the Padres and no one even talked about it, Chris Coglan broke Jung-ho Kang's leg and the next day the only people still talking about it were Pirates' fans.  But that brings us to the last game of the division series.  Also a game five this one between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets.  Two nights after Clayton Kershaw threw the Dodgers a gem to keep them in the series and give them a chance to win it at home Zack Greinke was good allowing 3 runs across 6.2 innings with 9 strikeouts but was not quite good enough to defeat Jacob deGrom and the Mets.  After struggling in the first deGrom grinded through the next five innings without allowing another run despite having some control problems and not having his best stuff before handing the ball off to Noah Syndergaard who threw an inning after warming up four times.  Syndergaard then handed it off to Jeurys Familia who threw the last two innings without allowing a baserunner to conclude a 3-2 Mets win.  This sent the Dodgers home and sent the Mets back home to host the Cubs on Saturday night.





Championship Series Predictions:


Kansas City Royals - Toronto Blue Jays:

I am standing by my previous prediction of Royals over Blue Jays in seven games with Johnny Cueto throwing them two huge games, game three and game seven.  With those huge games he takes home ALCS MVP and advances the Royals to the World Series for the second straight year.  Despite this prediction I believe Edinson Volquez gets hit around while Marco Estrada is good, not great, but good enough to out-pitch Volquez in a Blue Jays game one win over the Royals.

Chicago Cubs - New York Mets:

I have to slightly change up my prediction for this series considering I initially had the Dodgers but I am going to stand by the Cubs but bump it up from five games to six while sticking with Kris Bryant as NLCS MVP.  Bryant finally gets going on the road with at least one home run at Citi field before returning to Wrigley and playing extremely well like he has all season.  I think the Cubs lose game one in New York before taking game two.  They then return to Chicago taking games three and five, dropping game 4 due to a less than adequate outing from Jason Hammel.  When the series returns to New York the Cubs win game six clinching a trip to the World Series behind another stellar performance from their ace Jake Arrieta and home runs from Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015 ALDS Game One Predictions

Today we have the first two games of the American League Division Series.  The first game of the day is the Texas Rangers at the Toronto Blue Jays at 3:37 ET and then the at 7:37 ET the Kansas City Royals host the Houston Astros.

Texas Rangers - Toronto Blue Jays

The match-up of this game is AL Cy Young frontrunner left-hander David Price for the Blue Jays against Rangers' right-hander Yovani Gallardo.  Gallardo has been surprisingly very good in the postseason in the past, having thrown 26 innings with 20 strikeouts allowing 22 hits and only 6 earned runs.  While Price has not faired as well having thrown 40 postseason innings with a WHIP of 1.23 and an ERA of 4.50.  But I think this all changes today.  Today I believe the most potent offense in baseball, one that averaged 9.14 hits per game and 5.50 runs per game finally gets to a pitcher who has shut them out this season.  And I believe that David Price shows why he was so coveted by teams trying to compete at the deadline and throws them 8 innings of one-run baseball.  My prediction is an 8-1 Blue Jays victory.

David Price: 8 IP, 12 Ks, 2 BB, 5 HA, 1 ER
Roberto Osuna: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 0 BB, 0 HA, 0 ERs

Yovani Gallardo: 4 IP, 3 Ks, 2 BB, 12 HA, 6 ERs
Chi Chi Gonzalez: 1.2 IP, 0 Ks, 3 BB, 5 HA, 2 ERs
Ross Ohlendorf: 1.1 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs
Sam Dyson: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs

  • Teams to score 5+ runs in game 1 of the ALDS are 27-4 and 3 of the 4 losses were to the Yankees with the last one being to the Twins.
    • The Athletics loss to the Twins in game 1 of the 2002 ALDS is also the only time a team scored 5+ runs at home and lost (15-1).
  • No team has ever lost game 1 of the ALDS when scoring 8+ runs (15-0), those teams are 8-7 in the series.
    • The last team to score 8+ runs in a game was the Orioles in 2014, they swept the Detroit Tigers and then were swept by the Royals.

Houston Astros - Kansas City Royals

This second game of the day pits Astros' right Collin McHugh against Royals' right-handed flamethrower Yordano Ventura.  McHugh was very good this season but I think the Royals get to him in the first two innings when he was most vulnerable all season.  Batters against McHugh in the first inning: .302/.390/.468 and in the second inning: .295/.343/.426, from that point on he gets better but I think in this case those 2 innings are enough for Ventura and the Royals bullpen.  The Royals score 2 in the first and 1 in the second before McHugh eventually goes the next 4 innings without allowing a run.  While Ventura continues where he left off last postseason throwing the Royals 7 innings allowing 2 runs before the Royals bullpen locks down the win.  I have the Royals winning this game by a score of 4-2.

Yordano Ventura: 7 IP, 6 Ks, 2 BB, 7 HA, 2 ERs
Kelvin Herrera: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs
Wade Davis: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 0 BB, 0 HA, 0 ERs

Collin McHugh: 6 IP, 3 Ks, 1 BB, 9 HA, 3 ERs
Pat Neshek: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 3 HA, 1 ER
Tony Sipp: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs

  • Teams to allow 2 runs or fewer in game 1 of the ALDS are 22-2 in that game
  • Teams to allow 2 runs or fewer in game 1 of the ALDS are 16-8 in the series

In the 2-2-1 format when the team with home-field advantage wins game 1 they win the series 73.5% of the time.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2015 NL Wildcard Game Prediction

Tonight is the NL Wildcard game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.  This is absolute pitching match-up pitting aces Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole against each other.  Gerrit Cole has had an absolutely outstanding season and I'm not trying to take anything away from him but I think Jake Arrieta gives the Cubs the advantage.  He finished the season 22-6 with an ERA of 1.77, an FIP of 2.35 and an fWAR of 7.3, second to only Clayton Kershaw.  But it is his second half that really shines considering it was one of the most dominate ever.  In 15 second half starts Jake Arrieta went 12-1 posting an ERA of 0.75, which is the lowest in baseball history.  And did I mention he struck out 28.3% of the batters he faced.  Since the beginning of August, spanning 12 starts, he has allowed all of 4 earned runs with a 0.41 ERA and the Cubs are 12-0 in those games.  In that same span 269 pitchers have allowed 4+ earned runs in an inning.  At the end of the day I think the Cubs win this game by a score of 3-1 because of Jake Arrieta.

Prediction:
Jake Arrieta: 8 IP, 11 Ks, 0 Walk, 3 Hits, 1 ER
Hector Rondon: 1 IP, 1 Ks, 0 Hits, 0 ERs

Gerrit Cole: 6 IP, 5 Ks, 1 Walks, 7 Hits, 3 ERs
Joakim Soria: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 1 Walk, 0 Hits, 0 ERs
Tony Watson: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 Walks, 0 Hits, 0 ERs
Mark Melancon: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 Walks, 1 Hit, 0 ERs

Cubs runs score on a Kris Bryant two-run home run with Dexter Fowler on base and an Anthony Rizzo solo home run.  Pirates score Polanco on a McCutchen double.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Postseason Picks

As the playoffs begin tonight with the AL Wildcard game I figured it was as good a time as ever to write up my postseason picks and update my award winners.  My preseason picks did not turn out awful overall as the majority of my playoff teams actually made it and I could possibly get 50% of the major awards correct (unlikely however) but I would like to make some changes and forecast the rest of the way.

My Preseason Picks:
AL Wildcard game: Indians over Houston
ALDS: Royals over Indians in 4
ALDS: Yankees over Angels in 5
ALCS: Royals over Yankees in 6

NL Wildcard game: Cubs over Pirates
NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 5
NLDS: Nationals over Dodgers in 4
NLCS: Nationals over Cubs in 6

World Series: Royals defeat Nationals in 7
            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
AL MVP: Robinson Cano
AL ROY: Daniel Norris
AL Manager of the year: Ned Yost

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
NL ROY: Kris Bryant
NL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon

My Picks as of October 6th, 2015:
AL Wildcard game: Yankees over Houston
ALDS: Royals over Yankees in 5
ALDS: Blue Jays over Rangers in 4
ALCS: Royals over Blue Jays in 7
            ALCS MVP: Johnny Cueto

NL Wildcard game: Cubs over Pirates
NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals in 4
NLDS: Dodgers over Mets in 3
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers in 5
            NLCS MVP: Kris Bryant

World Series: Royals defeat Cubs in 7
            World Series MVP: Eric Hosmer

AL Cy Young: David Price
            Guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Sale and Chris Archer will garner votes in this ratce and had extraordinary seasons in 2015 but this race eventually comes down to just two, David Price and Dallas Keuchel.  No one in baseball has been better than Dallas Keuchel was at home this season, going 15-0 across 129.1 innings while striking out 139 batters with a batting average against of only .186 and only allowing 4 home runs but in my opinion even those numbers aren’t enough for him to beat out David Price for this award.  Price finished the regular season 18-5 across 220.1 innings pitched with a FIP of 2.78 good for second best in the American League behind only Chris Sale, while leading all AL pitchers in WAR with 6.4.  When the Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline they did so to win the big games and he has.  Since becoming a Blue Jay he has pitched against the Yankees four times and in those starts he has gone 3-0, throwing 26.1 innings, allowing 5 runs and striking out 27.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
            This race is truly just Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson and no one else is even close.  Many people are looking at this race and saying “Donaldson has run away with it” but if that is far from the truth.  They have the same number of home runs (41), and are both sitting around .300 in terms of batting average but that far from illustrates what is going on in this race.  The main arguments I have heard for Donaldson winning MVP is his RBI production and the Blue Jays making the playoffs.  Both arguments are ridiculous.  RBIs tell you nothing about an individual player’s performance but instead the production of the team as a whole.  Trout and Donaldson’s numbers with runners in scoring position are almost identical in general except Donaldson was provided this situation an extra 14 times.  In fact, with runners in scoring position with 2 outs Trout was much better, his slash line in this situation was .314/.556/.371 while Donaldson had a slash line of .254/.382/.444.  Mike Trout finished with a WAR of 9.0 compared to Donaldson’s 8.7 which is close but wRC+ (quantifies a player’s total offensive value) shows the true difference in their seasons.  Trout finished with a wRC+ of 172 second to only Bryce Harper while Donaldson ended the regular season at 154, good for 7th in all of baseball and 4th in the American League.  It is because of this that I say advantage Trout.

AL ROY: Francisco Lindor
            I previous blogged about this, see it here.

AL Manager of the year: Paul Molitor
            People had the Twins picked to finish last in the AL Central, it took a full 162 games for them to finally be eliminated.

NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta
            Jake Arrieta was very good in 2014 and very good in the first half of 2015 but his second half is the greatest ever.  He finished 2015 22-6 with an ERA of 1.77 across 229.0 innings with 236 strikeouts.  He threw 107.1 innings in the second half, facing 399 batters and striking out 113 batters.  He only allowed 55 hits, a batting average against of .148 and a WHIP of 0.73.  Oh yeah and he only allowed 9 earned runs (12 total runs).  Since August he has thrown 88.1 innings, he only allowed 4 earned runs, in that same time period 269 pitchers allowed 4+ earned runs in an inning.  So while Greinke and Kershaw were also ridiculously good, I don’t see how Arrieta doesn’t win NL Cy Young.
           
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
            There is no need to explain this pick he was the best player in baseball in 2015 and produced one of the greatest offensive seasons ever, especially for a player who is still only 22.  He should win this award unanimously.

NL ROY: Kris Bryant
            This award like NL MVP should be unanimous considering he has produced one of the best rookie seasons ever.  According to fWAR his WAR of 6.5 ranks 13/14 all time tied with Dutch Zwilling in 1914.  Since 1990 the only players who produced better rookie seasons are Mike Trout (2012), Mike Piazza (1993) and Albert Pujols (2001).

NL Manager of the year: Joe Maddon
            People laughed at me when I had the Cubs picked to finish second in the NL Central and lose to the Nationals in the NLCS but here we are they won 97 games thanks in no small part to Joe Maddon.


2015 AL Wildcard Game Prediction


Tonight we get our first taste of the 2015 MLB playoffs.  Tonight is the AL Wildcard game, which pits the New York Yankees and their ace Masahiro Tanaka against the Houston Astros and their ace and AL Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel.  The game begins at 8 PM EST at Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees went 45-36 at home, while the Astros went 33-48 on the road in 2015.

So far today I have been hearing rumors that the Yankees will start Chris Young over either Gardner or Ellsbury and to be honest it would not surprise me.  Chris Young has excelled against lefties this season, especially at home, while Gardner has been pretty good and Ellsbury has been below average.  The MLB average batting average against lefties this season was .254 and in the American League it was .258, while the Yankees as a team hit .257 against lefties and Ellsbury was worse than that.  Ellsbury hit .253 against lefties this season and .250 at home against lefties so sitting him for Young who has hit .327 against them this season and .329 against them at home, would honestly be a good move.  Young also had a OBP of .397 and a SLG of .575 against lefties this season so to say he has been an extraordinary option for the Yankees would be an understatement.  Gardner has a slash line of .276/.361/.400 this season against lefties so while no where near Young’s numbers much better than Ellsbury.  Bottom line if I had to pick three Yankees outfielders to start tonight I would go with: Beltran, Gardner and Young.

The other rumor I have been hearing is that John Ryan Murphy might start over Brian McCann and this argument is just laughable to me.  This argument is being made because of the supposed difference in defensive ability.  But the numbers actually favor McCann, but I will note neither of them is a very good defensive catcher.  McCann caught 1042.1 innings behind the plate in 2015 compared to Murphy’s 415.1 innings.  And despite catching 627 less innings Murphy actually had a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of -4 compared to McCann’s 0.  But that isn’t all if you looking at rSB (Stolen Base Runs Saved) McCann sits at +2 while Murphy finished the regular season at -2.  So what these numbers tell me is that not only is there not a significant difference in defensive ability but McCann is actually the better option, even if you forget about the 26 home runs he hit this year and the .437 he slugged this year.  Some of you might looking at the difference in batting average but that is easily quieted by looking at BABIP.  Murphy finished with a BABIP of .357 which tells me that his batting average of .277 is very inflated considering he lacks the speed to maintain that, while McCann has been very unlucky with a BABIP of .235 meaning his average of .232 does not truly show how he has hit.

My Yankees lineup for tonight:
  1. Gardner – CF
  2. Beltran – RF
  3. Chris Young – LF
  4. Alex Rodriguez – DH
  5. Brian McCann – C
  6. Greg Bird – 1st
  7. Chase Headley – 3rd
  8. Rob Refsnyder – 2nd
  9. Didi Gregorius - SS
Dallas Keuchel has thrown 16 innings against the Yankees this season and they are yet to score a run off him.  But my prediction for tonight is that throwing on only 3 days rest, something he has only done one time in his career (started on 2 days rest in 2013), the Yankees finally get to him.  While Tanaka throws the Yankees 7 innings of shutout baseball before the combination of Betances and Miller close out a 2-0 Yankees victory.