Saturday, November 7, 2015

Top 50 MLB Free Agents


  1. Jason Heyward – 26
    • Contract Prediction: 9 years, $198 million, with an opt out clause somewhere around year 4 or 5
    • Team Prediction: Angels
    • Heyward is as elite a defender a team can get to play right field and has some power potential (hit 27 in 2012, but only 14 in 2013, 11 in 2014 and 13 in 2015), with the ability to hit around .290 and steal 20+ bases.  Is a perfect fit for the Angels because they could easily shift Calhoun to left, slotting Heyward into right, giving them one of the best if not the very best outfields in baseball.
  2. David Price – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 6 years, $189 million
    • Team Prediction: Cubs
    • David Price has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2010 and is a true ace who is aiming for a contract in the area of Kershaw and Scherzer.  The Cubs have the money to pay this enormous contract and signing him vastly improves their rotation where they struggled to find consistency behind Arrieta and Lester.
  3. Zack Greinke – 32
    • Contract Prediction: 5 years, $165 million
    • Team Prediction: Dodgers
    • Zack Greinke just opted out of his remaining deal with the Dodgers but him resigning is the most logical decision for both sides.
  4. Jordan Zimmerman – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 7 years, $161 million
    • Team Prediction: Yankees
    • The Yankees seriously need another top of the rotation starter to pair with Tanaka and Zimmerman fits the bill.  Since 2011 his bWAR of 19.5 ranks 11th among pitchers behind the likes of Price and Greinke both of whom will receive contracts upwards of $31 million making $23 million to Zimmerman a bargain.
  5. Johnny Cueto – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 6 years, $162 million
    • Team Prediction: Red Sox
    • He had a brutal period of time after being traded to the Royals but still finished the season strong throwing a two hit complete game in game two of the World Series and threw eight innings of two hit baseball facing elimination in game five of the ALDS.  He has been the Ace of the Red’s rotation for years and there is no reason he still couldn’t be one for the Red Sox who are in desperate need for one.
  6. Alex Gordon – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 5 years, $90 million
    • Team Prediction: Royals
    • Gordon just declined his option for 2016 and is expected to decline his qualifying offer but is still expected to resign with the Royals.
  7. Justin Upton – 28
    • Contract Prediction: 7 years, $147
    • Team Prediction: Yankees
    • I don’t really like this signing but I think Cashman and the Yankees are going to go out and sign some big free agents this offseason and I think Justin Upton is one of those signings.
  8. Ian Desmond – 30
    • Contract Prediction: Mets
    • Team Prediction: 5 years, $76.25 million
    • With the exception of the first half of 2015 he has been one of the best shortstops in baseball over the last couple seasons and this contract would make him the third highest paid shortstop in baseball right between Tulo and Elvis Andrus.
  9. Yoenis Cespedes – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 6 years, $126 million
    • Team Prediction: White Sox
    • Was out of this world after being traded to the Mets hitting 17 HRs in 57 games and hitting 35 on the year.  His slash line of .291/.328/.542 is way off his career numbers and not numbers that I think he replicates in 2016 or beyond considering he strikes out 20.9% in his career while only walking 6.1% of the time.  That isn’t saying he still won’t be a productive player because he will be and I think signing with the White Sox is a good move for both sides.  The White Sox’ outfield ranked 26 in terms of WAR in 2015 and Yoenis Cespedes vastly improves that.  Best case scenario for the White Sox would be to sign Cespedes to play left, shift Melky Cabrera to a full time DH role to allow them to bench, release or trade Adam LaRoche (still owed $13 million in 2016) who was one of the least productive players in all of baseball in 2015.
  10. Ben Zobrist – 34
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $60 million, with a vesting option for a 4th year
    • Team Prediction: Yankees
    • The ultimate utility man in baseball with the ability to play almost every position on the field while hitting around .275 with an OBP of around .355, since 2009 he ranks 5th among position player in bWAR at 39.3 just behind the likes of Cano, Miggy, Beltre and Votto and ahead of McCutchen and Longoria.
  11. Dexter Fowler – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $40 million, with a mutual option for a 3rd year
    • Team Prediction: Cubs
    • I think the Cubs overpay here so that they can sign him to a shorter deal allowing for Almora to take over center in the near future.  The reason I don’t think Fowler rejects this two-year deal is because the Cubs have a legitimate chance of winning the World Series in the next two years and then he is once again a free agent at 31.
  12. Matt Wieters – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 5 years, $65 million
    • Team Prediction: Nationals
    • A good catcher is hard to find and one with offensive upside is even harder to find.  The Nationals ranked second to last in production from their catchers in 2015 and if they want to compete in 2016 it starts with a massive improvement behind the plate
  13. Kenta Maeda – 27
    • Contract Prediction: 6 years, $96 million
    • Team Prediction: Diamondbacks
    • Over the last eight seasons he has absolutely carved up the Japan Central League with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.048 across 1509.2 innings while maintaining a K/9 of 7.4.  While it is yet to be seen whether the Hiroshima Carp will post their star pitcher if they do he will surely be one of the most coveted players on the free agent market.
  14. Mike Leake – 27
    • Contract Prediction: 6 years, $108 million
    • Team Prediction: Giants
    • The Giants only have four set members of their rotation in 2016, only three members of their rotation signed beyond 2016 and only Bumgarner and Heston beyond the 2017 season.  So adding Mike Leake for 2016 and the future is an investment I think they have to make, especially if they want to continue their streak of winning the World Series every even year. (2010, 2012, 2014).
  15. Jeff Samardzija – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 5 years, $77.5
    • Team Prediction: Dodgers
    • The Dodgers have no problem spending massive amounts of money and I think they sign Samardzija to be their 3rd starter since they had trouble finding quality starts from pitchers not named Kershaw or Greinke in 2015.
  16. Daniel Murphy – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $54 million
    • Team Prediction: Angels
    • The Angels ranked 26th in terms of production from the second base position in 2015 and while Murphy won’t be the player he was in the first two rounds of the playoffs he is still one of the better offensive options in baseball at second base and is a much better option than either Giavotella or Featherston.
  17. Mat Latos – 27
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $31 million
    • Team Prediction: Pirates
    • Mat Latos struggled mightily in 2015 which will lower his value in the market which plays right into the hands of the Pirates who seem to sign pitchers everyone else has given up on every year and turn them into viable starters
  18. Howie Kendrick – 32
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $44 million
    • Team Prediction: White Sox
    • The White Sox ranked dead last in terms of production from the second base position in 2015 and Howie Kendricks is one of the better options to fill that role and the cheapest option among them.
  19. Scott Kazmir – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $52 million
    • Team Prediction: Astros
    • Kazmir is coming off one of the better years of his career and has put up very good numbers over the last few years and while he will he won’t get paid like a top of the rotation starter his numbers prove that he is a very good option for the Astros to keep behind Dallas Keuchel.
  20. Colby Rasmus – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $48 million
    • Team Prediction: Orioles
    • Colby Rasmus is one of the better power bats on the market this offseason coming off a season that saw him hit 25 HRs in the regular season before hitting 4 more in 6 postseason games.  While he strikes out at a very high rate (31.8% in 2015) and hits for a low average (.238 in 2015) power bats are a commodity that teams will pay for, especially a team that struggled for production from any outfielder not named Adam Jones.
  21. Chris Davis – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 5 years, $105 million
    • Team Prediction: Blue Jays
    • This might seem like a weird prediction given their current lineup but he hit 7 home runs against them this year and has hit 19 home runs against them over the last three years which is his most against any team and he is a better everyday option than Justin Smoak.
  22. Yasiel Sierra – 24
    • Contract Prediction: 6 years, $48 million
    • Team Prediction: Yankees
    • Sierra is one of the top Cuban free agents, he fastball average 94.7 MPH at the recent perfect game tournament and while he needs to improve his control a lot to be a viable major league option you can never have enough young flame throwers and I think the Yankees go out and get this one.
  23. John Lackey – 37
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $34 million
    • Team Prediction: Cardinals
    • While his FIP of 3.57 does not support his ERA of 2.77, Lackey produced his best season in terms of WAR since 2007 in 2015 and was a huge part of the Cardinals rotation and I think he gets paid like it.
  24. Denard Span – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $44 million
    • Team Prediction: Mets
    • When healthy Span is one of the more talented outfielders on the free agent market with the ability to steal bases and hit around .300 which is a real asset at the top of any team’s lineup.
  25. Yovani Gallardo – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $52 million
    • Team Prediction: Rangers
    • Gallardo was a big part of the Rangers rotation in 2015 and was a big reason they were in playoff contention the entire year even after losing Darvish and everyone assumed they were done.  In 2016 they would get Darvish back to go with Cole Hamels add in Gallardo and the Rangers have a very good 1-2-3 punch.
  26. Ian Kennedy – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $48 million
    • Team Prediction: Orioles
  27. Byung-ho Park – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $40 million
    • Team Prediction: Red Sox
  28. Hisashi Iwakuma – 34
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $45 million
    • Team Prediction: Mariners
  29. Wei-Yin Chen – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 5 years, $72.5 million
    • Team Prediction: Tigers
  30. Austin Jackson – 28
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $30 million
    • Team Prediction: Tigers
  31. Darren O’Day – 33
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $27 million
    • Team Prediction: Tigers
  32. Marco Estrada – 32
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $29 million
    • Team Prediction: Blue Jays
  33. Brett Anderson – 27
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $25 million
    • Team Prediction: Dodgers
  34. David Freese – 32
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $27 million
    • Team Prediction: Angels
  35. J.A. Happ – 33
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $25 million
    • Team Prediction: Pirates
  36. Ryan Madson – 35
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $18 million
    • Team Prediction: Royals
  37. Joakim Soria – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $25 million
    • Team Prediction: Twins
  38. Doug Fister – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $22 million
    • Team Prediction: Royals
  39. Tim Lincecum – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $14 million
    • Team Prediction: Giants
  40. Tyler Clippard – 30
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $24 million
    • Team Prediction: Mariners
  41. Asdrubal Cabrera – 29
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $16 million
    • Team Prediction: Padres
  42. Alexei Ramirez – 34
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $12 million
    • Team Prediction: White Sox
  43. Shawn Kelley – 31
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $21 million
    • Team Prediction: Red Sox
  44. Gerardo Parra – 28
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $24 million
    • Team Prediction: Padres
  45. Trevor Cahill – 27
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $5 million
    • Team Prediction: Cubs
  46. Tony Sipp – 32
    • Contract Prediction: Astros
    • Team Prediction: 3 years, $15 million
  47. Chris Young – 32
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $12 million
    • Team Prediction: Rangers
  48. Mark Lowe – 32
    • Contract Prediction: 3 years, $15 million
    • Team Prediction: Blue Jays
  49. Ah-seop Son – 27
    • Contract Prediction: 4 years, $34 million
    • Team Prediction: Mariners
  50. Mike Napoli - 34
    • Contract Prediction: 2 years, $18 million
    • Team Prediction: Rockies

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Hosmer At The Plate

First off congrats to the Kansas City Royals on brining a World Championship back to their fans for the first time since 1985.  They never gave up and were the kings of the comeback, winning a World Series in five games that saw them trailing going into the eighth inning four times and trailing going into the ninth inning three times.



Over the last couple days there has been a lot of talk about this play by Hosmer where he scored the game trying run on a Perez groundout with one out in the 9th and whether he should have scored and a lot of people seem to believe that a "decent" throw by Mets' first baseman Lucas Duda would have easily had him at the plate.  I'm not so sure that is true though, but let me explain.

The whole play, from the time the ball was hit into play by Salvador Perez from the time the ball was thrown past Mets' catcher Travis d'Arnaud was all of about six seconds.  And the time from when Duda caught the throw from David Wright and threw it wide of d'Arnaud was less than two seconds.  Hosmer's secondary lead was tracked at about 9.5 feet leaving about 80.5 feet between him and home plate, but then David Wright took more steps than he should have to make the throw to first.  This left Hosmer about 57 feet from home when the ball reached Duda's glove and Hosmer was tracked with a max speed of 19.7 MPH which converts to 28.893 feet per second.  This means that if there had been a full two seconds Hosmer would have covered about 57.786 feet at his max speed and while I highly doubt he was traveling his max speed those full 57 feet, that still makes the play extremely close before d'Arnaud has to put on what would have been a difficult tag on a diving Hosmer.  At the end of the day we will never really know what would have happened if Duda had made the throw to home on target but I am under the belief that Hosmer still would have been safe and still would have tied the game.