Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015 ALDS Game One Predictions

Today we have the first two games of the American League Division Series.  The first game of the day is the Texas Rangers at the Toronto Blue Jays at 3:37 ET and then the at 7:37 ET the Kansas City Royals host the Houston Astros.

Texas Rangers - Toronto Blue Jays

The match-up of this game is AL Cy Young frontrunner left-hander David Price for the Blue Jays against Rangers' right-hander Yovani Gallardo.  Gallardo has been surprisingly very good in the postseason in the past, having thrown 26 innings with 20 strikeouts allowing 22 hits and only 6 earned runs.  While Price has not faired as well having thrown 40 postseason innings with a WHIP of 1.23 and an ERA of 4.50.  But I think this all changes today.  Today I believe the most potent offense in baseball, one that averaged 9.14 hits per game and 5.50 runs per game finally gets to a pitcher who has shut them out this season.  And I believe that David Price shows why he was so coveted by teams trying to compete at the deadline and throws them 8 innings of one-run baseball.  My prediction is an 8-1 Blue Jays victory.

David Price: 8 IP, 12 Ks, 2 BB, 5 HA, 1 ER
Roberto Osuna: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 0 BB, 0 HA, 0 ERs

Yovani Gallardo: 4 IP, 3 Ks, 2 BB, 12 HA, 6 ERs
Chi Chi Gonzalez: 1.2 IP, 0 Ks, 3 BB, 5 HA, 2 ERs
Ross Ohlendorf: 1.1 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs
Sam Dyson: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs

  • Teams to score 5+ runs in game 1 of the ALDS are 27-4 and 3 of the 4 losses were to the Yankees with the last one being to the Twins.
    • The Athletics loss to the Twins in game 1 of the 2002 ALDS is also the only time a team scored 5+ runs at home and lost (15-1).
  • No team has ever lost game 1 of the ALDS when scoring 8+ runs (15-0), those teams are 8-7 in the series.
    • The last team to score 8+ runs in a game was the Orioles in 2014, they swept the Detroit Tigers and then were swept by the Royals.

Houston Astros - Kansas City Royals

This second game of the day pits Astros' right Collin McHugh against Royals' right-handed flamethrower Yordano Ventura.  McHugh was very good this season but I think the Royals get to him in the first two innings when he was most vulnerable all season.  Batters against McHugh in the first inning: .302/.390/.468 and in the second inning: .295/.343/.426, from that point on he gets better but I think in this case those 2 innings are enough for Ventura and the Royals bullpen.  The Royals score 2 in the first and 1 in the second before McHugh eventually goes the next 4 innings without allowing a run.  While Ventura continues where he left off last postseason throwing the Royals 7 innings allowing 2 runs before the Royals bullpen locks down the win.  I have the Royals winning this game by a score of 4-2.

Yordano Ventura: 7 IP, 6 Ks, 2 BB, 7 HA, 2 ERs
Kelvin Herrera: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs
Wade Davis: 1 IP, 2 Ks, 0 BB, 0 HA, 0 ERs

Collin McHugh: 6 IP, 3 Ks, 1 BB, 9 HA, 3 ERs
Pat Neshek: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 3 HA, 1 ER
Tony Sipp: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 HA, 0 ERs

  • Teams to allow 2 runs or fewer in game 1 of the ALDS are 22-2 in that game
  • Teams to allow 2 runs or fewer in game 1 of the ALDS are 16-8 in the series

In the 2-2-1 format when the team with home-field advantage wins game 1 they win the series 73.5% of the time.

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